Election 2020: The Red Mirage Theory

The 2020 presidential election is going to be here before we know it. After months of keeping up with headlines, polls, and speculation, we are only weeks away from officially casting our votes on November 3rd. Many, including myself, plan to vote early to remain safe from the mishandled coronavirus pandemic which is still spreading rapidly. Recently, Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric has implied that the upcoming election will be the most fraudulent in the country’s history. These unsubstantiated claims paired with what will likely be a record amount of absentee ballots cast have led me and others to speculate on how election night will look, and spoiler alert: it could get ugly. In this post, I’m going to describe the “Red Mirage Theory” and what it could mean for the country post-election.

It’s simple, really. Come election day, the ballots cast by in-person voters on November 3rd will immediately be processed and tallied. Absentee ballots, which are still eligible if they are addressed by election day but not received yet, will likely require days to be manually added to the popular vote count. Recent polling has shown that registered and likely Democratic voters are significantly more likely to cast absentee or early votes than their Republican counterparts who highly downplay or disregard the pandemic in large part to Trump’s admitted lies regarding its severity. Trump, who is desperately looking for an excuse to call foul play, may appear to be winning handily on election night, but in reality, will be losing according to absentee ballots and recent favorable national and state polling for Joe Biden. The theory is that if Donald Trump is falsely perceived to be winning on November 3rd, hence the “Red Mirage” theory name, he will declare victory and claim fraud if and when Joe Biden overcomes him in the electoral college as mail-in votes are counted. This would not be good.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric has incited violence in the past, and if this scenario were to take place, I imagine it would lead to significant violence yet again. What’s equally terrifying is the notion that Trump could go state-by-state and insist judges, who he has appointed, determine the path forward in counting incoming votes in the following days after the election. If judges in swing states such as Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina rule in Trump’s favor, similarly to how Florida judges ruled in George W. Bush’s favor in 2000, he could steal an election he was never supposed to win, and civil unrest would be at an all-time high.

I don’t like to read too much into the “what-ifs” which are completely out of my control, but I see the validity of this theory. Hopefully Joe Biden wins in such a popular and electoral landslide that none of this comes to fruition, but I wouldn’t be surprised if election “night” turns into election “week” or even “month” as the results are tabulated. I would, however, rather wait for correct results than immediately receive false ones. What’s important is that we get out and vote. To make sure you’re registered, use the link below. Thanks for reading.

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