Ossoff & Warnock Win Runoff Elections, Secure Democratic Senate

The world turned upside down. Last night, the polls closed for the 2021 Senate runoff elections here in Georgia. Incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler attempted to fend off challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively. After months of anticipation, polling, and campaigning, we finally have a definitive result and outcome for this all-important election. Both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have been declared victors by Decision Desk HQ, securing a 50-50 Senate with Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote and a Democratic majority in the Senate. It feels like a dream.

Watching Georgia shift left over the years has been satisfying and inspiring. I never would have thought four or eight years ago that a Democratic presidential candidate would win this state, let alone win two Senate elections in the process. While I believe that time moves the country in the direction of progress, it’s interesting to try to unambiguously determine the factors that helped decide this election in favor of the Democratic candidates. I believe this can be credited to President Trump’s attacks on democracy, two largely unpopular Republican candidates in Perdue and Loeffler (especially the latter), and Stacey Abrams’ support of two solid candidates.

Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the 2020 Presidential election was rigged in Joe Biden’s favor. In doing so, he has delegitimized and negated the importance of each individual vote. Many of his supporters believed that their vote held no significance, and decided not to vote altogether. The rallies he held prior to the election, which were supposed to show support for the Republican candidates, wound up being complaining fests as Trump reflected on what he delusionally believes was a stolen election. That being said, even if he had shown more support for Perdue and Loeffler, it might not have made a difference.

Polls prior to the election showed that Perdue was trailing Ossoff less than Loeffler trailed Warnock. I credit this to Perdue’s actual incumbency, in that he had previously won an election to secure his seat in the Senate. Loeffler, on the other hand, was a Trump appointee who never won elected office, and instead was vying to secure her first victory in these runoffs. Both of these candidates made dubious and questionable decisions along the campaign trail, including when Loeffler likened herself to Atilla the Hun, when Perdue was photographed flashing a white power hand gesture, and when both candidates gave terrible debate performances and openly opposed further COVID-19 stimulus for Georgians, among many others. So the Republicans definitely messed things up for themselves, but how did Democrats break their runoff / mid-term dry spell habit of low voter turnout? Simple. Stacey Abrams.

The woman is a national treasure. Her ability to build a network of organizations dedicated to registering new voters from underrepresented communities ensured that over 800,000 Georgia residents were going to vote in these elections. With margins as small as the ones seen in Biden’s, Ossoff’s, and Warnock’s victories, it’s hard not to say that Abrams was a deciding factor. I hope that she decides to run for governor again in 2022 against Brian Kemp, and if she does, I like her odds. Georgia could be the next Virginia.

After growing up in Illinois and living in Georgia for the past eight or so years, it feels good to say I live in a blue state again. Attacks on Democracy, minorities, and common sense legislation just don’t work on an increasingly left-leaning population in Georgia anymore. I sincerely hope that a Democratic trifecta leads to the passing of meaningful and substantial legislation, and as a progressive, I won’t be afraid to call out the Democratic party if they stall on getting things done. For now, though, let’s celebrate the fact that Democrats took all three branches of government, and that they will take things over in just a couple weeks. Light at the end of the tunnel… finally.

The Importance Of The Georgia Senate Runoff

After months of anticipation, campaigning, and voting, the 2020 Presidential election was finally decided in favor of Joe Biden. Despite countless and baseless disputes from the Trump administration questioning the validity of the results, the Electoral College officially selected Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as President-elect and Vice President-elect, respectively, last week. Although this victory was a massive win for Democracy in the face of an authoritarian candidate, the future of the United States’ government is still in the balance. Due to the nature of the Senate elections, it’s still undetermined which party will control this vital role in the system, as the Georgia Senate Election in November has led to two separate runoffs. These runoffs will end on January 5th, and Joe Biden’s ability to pass meaningful legislation will be determined. These are two incredibly important elections.

The standard election is between Jon Ossoff and incumbent David Perdue, and the special election is between Reverend Raphael Warnock and Trump-appointee Kelly Loeffler. Ossoff gained national notoriety for his campaign against Karen Handel, and Warnock picked up some popularity from the viral nature of his sermons. While neither of these candidates are legislatively progressive by any means, they are significantly more in-line with progressive sentiment than their Republican counterparts.

To put it simply: David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler both knowingly profited off of the coronavirus pandemic. Insider trading and intentional misinformation allowed these two to make money off of stocks related to COVID-19 related companies, all while downplaying the pandemic’s severity to encourage a premature reopening of businesses in Georgia, where the pandemic has run rampant. As coronavirus numbers continue to rise uncontrollably prior to the wide release of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, this election could allow a Democratic majority in the Senate, which would provide much-needed relief to families and businesses before the pandemic ends. The next stimulus package has left many bewildered and disappointed, as it will send only $600 after months of no government assistance - not nearly enough to call meaningful relief.

A Republican-controlled Senate would create gridlock for the first two years of the Biden administration. A Democratically-controlled Senate would protect Civil Rights, work toward solving the coronavirus pandemic, and help Americans move toward progress and equality. Any Georgians who have not yet voted should do so, as high voter turnout has historically helped the Democratic Party. Polls are indicating a slight Democratic lead, but I'll believe it when I see it. We must win this thing. Thanks for reading.

Joe Biden Wins The 2020 Presidential Election

It’s done. Over the past four days, the United States has waited patiently as legally-cast ballots were counted in key swing states across the country. On Saturday morning, Pennsylvania was called by most mainstream media news networks, putting Joe Biden above the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency. Kamala Harris is now the first woman to be Vice President-Elect, which shows how far we’ve come as a nation.

This election has served as a decisive referendum against Donald Trump’s failed leadership. After dealing with vast racial tensions, an uncontrolled pandemic, and constant attacks against democracy, the American people chose Joe Biden with more votes than any other presidential candidate in the country’s history.

Honor, humility, empathy, and respect will return to the White House. Competence and dedication will return to the White House. We now have a President and Vice President-Elect who will govern for all Americans, not just for their supporters. Today is historic, and I’m so relieved to know definitively that we’ve made the right decision.

Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.

Vice Presidential Debate Analysis

On Wednesday night, Vice President Mike Pence and Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris met on the debate stage in Salt Lake City, Utah. Though Vice Presidential debates historically don’t impact polls or the race in general, this year’s veeps are more significant than usual due to Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s age. This debate was much more substantive than the disastrous first presidential debate, where Donald Trump was likely contagious with the coronavirus. There were a few key moments which defined Wednesday’s debate, and there is now good reason to think Trump’s campaign is all but defeated.

Kamala Harris is known for her superior rhetorical skills and debate experience, and while she was less pointed than usual against Pence, those skills were on display Wednesday night. Harris confidently and completely answered the majority of moderator Susan Page’s questions, but refused to answer whether or not a Biden administration would pack the Supreme Court. While many conservative political pundits see this as a dodge, I view this as a strategic tactic to avoid the backlash which would come from either a yes or no. If Biden and Harris were to commit to packing the courts, the entire right and those on the left who oppose it would be upset. If they weren’t to make that commitment, those on the left in favor of packing the court would show dismay. My opinion on the matter is if Donald Trump and the Republican Senate nominate and approve Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court after barring Barack Obama from doing the same with Merrick Garland in 2016, they should absolutely pack the court with diverse, young, liberal justices. Actions have consequences.

Another key moment was Kamala Harris’s opening answer and subsequent condemnation of the Trump administration’s response to the coronavirus. Without mincing words, Harris highlighted and scorned Mike Pence for inaction which has led to the deaths of over 218,000 Americans. Pence showed apathetic “sympathy” for those affected by the virus, but couldn’t outline a plan the coronavirus task force is following the lessen the damage the virus is still causing. On the other hand, Kamala Harris outlined exactly what she and Joe Biden would do to finally handle the pandemic which has halted the economy and needlessly hurt so many over the past months.

In keeping with Pence’s inability to clearly answer questions directly, he displayed a new tactic at Wednesday night’s debate. When Susan Page introduced questions related to a new topic, Pence continually regressed and tried to answer the last set of questions which were asked. After doing so, Harris would answer the same question, and Pence would claim he needed time to address the issue as if he hadn’t just given up that time deferring on the matter. This tactic came across as dodgy, and when paired with Pence’s condescending tone and strange physical appearance, totaled in a very bizarre showing for the vice president.

I only like to bring up personal appearance when it is relevant to the discourse. On Wednesday, Pence didn’t appear well. From his swollen lip to his bloodshot eye, concerns arose that Mike Pence was exhibiting early symptoms of COVID-19. After cancelling campaign events to return to Washington, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pence, too, has caught the virus. I would also be remiss not to mention the surprise star of the night’s debate, which was the fly that sat on Mike Pence’s head for over two minutes. I’m not going to read too much into this hilarious coincidence, but we all know what flies migrate toward: steaming piles of incompetence.

Although post-debate polls reflect that the electorate think Harris won the debate, it’s unclear whether or not this performance will be memorable or impactful on the race. With presidential debate two recently being canceled and time running out for the Trump campaign, it’s looking more likely that Joe Biden will have great chances on election day. Who do you think won the debate? Thanks for reading.