Democracy's Darkest Day

Democracy had its darkest day yesterday. After Donald Trump incited violence by encouraging his supporters to head to the Capitol building after his misinformation rally, they did just that. Thousands of deplorable individuals were able to make their way inside the halls of Congress, which led to multiple gunfights and panic. This vitriolic attack took place while the House Of Representatives and Senate were counting the state-certified electoral college votes for President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. Although the Capitol was eventually cleared, four individuals died and more than fifty arrests were made. Meanwhile, Donald Trump took to video from the White House and unenthusiastically called for “peace” while simultaneously telling the individuals who partook in these demonstrations that he “loved them” and that they were “special.” Twitter has since removed these posts and locked his account for twelve hours, while Facebook and Instagram have banned him indefinitely. There are few dates that live in infamy in the United States, and unfortunately, 01/06/2021 is now one of them.

Although democracy had its darkest day yesterday, it also had one of its strongest nights last night. After the Capitol was cleared as safe, Congress resumed the procedural and necessary process of counting electoral votes on the same day that they were attacked by anti-American Trump supporters. A good portion of the Republican elected officials who were originally going to object to this process decided that because of the day’s events, that action was inappropriate. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s electoral votes have now been officially counted, which was the final step required by the United States Constitution before their inauguration later this month.

While I choose to believe that a majority of Americans stand strongly against yesterday’s domestic terrorism, I am disheartened to see ultra-conservative responses on social media today. These airheaded individuals are likening breaking and entering into the U.S. Capitol building based on unfounded claims of voter fraud to the Black Lives Matter protest that took place over the summer. The key difference is that one group (BLM) was protesting because members of their community were being unjustly murdered, and the other (Trump supporters) attacked one of the most sacred buildings in the country because their candidate lost a fair election that has been under scrutiny from election experts from both parties for months. It’s also worth noting that the individuals who stormed the Capitol were in large part allowed to leave freely after entering fairly easily, which definitely wouldn’t have been the case if they had different skin color. Once again, the systemic racism that defines our country has shown its ugly teeth.

If there was any doubt as to what we warned against when Donald Trump was elected, this is it. An egomaniac too self-absorbed and narcissistic to accept defeat has brainwashed some of his most loyal supporters into attacking their own country. There’s no wonder why so many of them also tout the Confederate flag - they are anti-American. It’s horrible that anyone died yesterday. That being said, those individuals shouldn’t have done what they did, because they crossed the line of protest into acts of sedition the second they stepped into the Capitol building and sought violence against American representatives. I sincerely hope that Donald Trump is removed before the end of his term by way of either a second impeachment or the 25th amendment, because he has proven himself a traitor to this country willing to attack our democracy for what he views as personal gain. His supporters the same for emboldening it. We need to be better than this. We need a better tomorrow.

Hindsight In 2020

Many, including myself previously, have referred to the 2020 presidential election as the “most important election of our lifetime.” Recently, I’ve reflected on that sentiment and have come to the conclusion, while still recognizing the severity and importance of this year’s election, that the 2016 presidential election was actually the most important of our lifetime. In this post, I will explain how America’s course of history changed permanently four years ago, and why it’s imperative we redirect it back in the right direction in November.

There are many reasons why one can reasonably call the results of the 2016 election a fluke. Various predictive election models overwhelmingly expected Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president in the last election. Foreign meddling, voter suppression, Democratic overconfidence, and third party disruption culminated in the perfect storm which allowed a former reality TV show host to become the president of the United States. While many of Donald Trump’s supporters downplayed (and still do) the negative consequences of choosing an inexperienced candidate for this job, his opposition has consistently warned of the potential failings we are now facing, including the mishandling of the coronavirus, the permanence of racial injustice, a potential Conservative majority Supreme Court, and a crippled economy. The sheer incompetence and brazen attitude Trump has adopted has caused nearly irreparable damage in just four years — damage which could’ve easily been avoided if Clinton had instead been elected.

Hillary Clinton was easily one of the most qualified candidates for the presidency of the United States in the country’s history. Clinton would’ve kept in place Barack Obama’s pandemic response protocols, swiftly addressed and disavowed police brutality, and would’ve kept things moving in a more progressive direction generally, such as maintaining the Affordable Care Act and decriminalizing nonviolent crime, among other issues. Instead, Donald Trump became president and did nearly the opposite on all of those issues. While many say that Trump is simply a symptom of deeper, underlying ignorance, bigotry, xenophobia, and racism in the country which would’ve existed either way, I believe three consecutive Democratic presidential terms would’ve fully suppressed the regressive and vile ideologies which have now been platformed by Trump.

As a progressive, I still recognize that there is so much further this country needs to go. We need to systemically address racial injustice, offer healthcare free at the point of use under a universal single-payer system, address climate change, and constitutionally secure the safety of basic human rights including a woman’s right to choose and the LGBTQ+ community’s equal treatment. No systemic change takes place overnight in this country. The Women’s Suffrage Movement, Civil Rights Movement, and every other substantive movement in this country has been a slow but steady effort. The 2020 election has already started, and it’s imperative we don’t let the same apathy we saw previously compound with the obstacles we know we will be facing yet again. Electing Joe Biden as the next president will help turn things around, partially nullifying the damage caused by 2016’s election, which was the most important in our country’s history. Get out and vote.

Thanks for reading.

Election 2020: The Red Mirage Theory

The 2020 presidential election is going to be here before we know it. After months of keeping up with headlines, polls, and speculation, we are only weeks away from officially casting our votes on November 3rd. Many, including myself, plan to vote early to remain safe from the mishandled coronavirus pandemic which is still spreading rapidly. Recently, Donald Trump’s campaign rhetoric has implied that the upcoming election will be the most fraudulent in the country’s history. These unsubstantiated claims paired with what will likely be a record amount of absentee ballots cast have led me and others to speculate on how election night will look, and spoiler alert: it could get ugly. In this post, I’m going to describe the “Red Mirage Theory” and what it could mean for the country post-election.

It’s simple, really. Come election day, the ballots cast by in-person voters on November 3rd will immediately be processed and tallied. Absentee ballots, which are still eligible if they are addressed by election day but not received yet, will likely require days to be manually added to the popular vote count. Recent polling has shown that registered and likely Democratic voters are significantly more likely to cast absentee or early votes than their Republican counterparts who highly downplay or disregard the pandemic in large part to Trump’s admitted lies regarding its severity. Trump, who is desperately looking for an excuse to call foul play, may appear to be winning handily on election night, but in reality, will be losing according to absentee ballots and recent favorable national and state polling for Joe Biden. The theory is that if Donald Trump is falsely perceived to be winning on November 3rd, hence the “Red Mirage” theory name, he will declare victory and claim fraud if and when Joe Biden overcomes him in the electoral college as mail-in votes are counted. This would not be good.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric has incited violence in the past, and if this scenario were to take place, I imagine it would lead to significant violence yet again. What’s equally terrifying is the notion that Trump could go state-by-state and insist judges, who he has appointed, determine the path forward in counting incoming votes in the following days after the election. If judges in swing states such as Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina rule in Trump’s favor, similarly to how Florida judges ruled in George W. Bush’s favor in 2000, he could steal an election he was never supposed to win, and civil unrest would be at an all-time high.

I don’t like to read too much into the “what-ifs” which are completely out of my control, but I see the validity of this theory. Hopefully Joe Biden wins in such a popular and electoral landslide that none of this comes to fruition, but I wouldn’t be surprised if election “night” turns into election “week” or even “month” as the results are tabulated. I would, however, rather wait for correct results than immediately receive false ones. What’s important is that we get out and vote. To make sure you’re registered, use the link below. Thanks for reading.

VOTE: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of September

We are now a mere two months away from the most impactful presidential election of our lifetimes, and debatably in American history. The ramifications this election will have are going to directly impact generations not only domestically, but all around the world. Recent polling has shown that the race is tightening up slightly, but this was to be expected as we neared closer to election day. Donald Trump’s favorability continues to poll miserably, but the nationwide gap between him and Joe Biden has shrunk slightly, sitting at +7.0 for Biden according to FiveThirtyEight, who still give him a 69% chance of winning the election. In this post, I’m going to forecast how I think things would go down if the election were held today. Let’s jump into it.

The states we can classify as solidly Democratic or Republican leaning haven’t changed and won’t change much leading up to November 3rd. States like California, Illinois, New York, Wyoming, Mississippi, and Alabama, for example, are almost guaranteed to go to their respective preferred candidates. The likely states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Montana, Utah, and Missouri haven’t changed much, either, demonstrating the polarization and steadfast voting habits of some states in the country. Things do get interesting, however, when we look at the lean and tilt classifications, which actually have changed slightly in Donald Trump’s favor after recent events such as the Republican National Convention and unrest after the police shooting of Jacob Blake and the ensuing protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Whether moral and logical or not, the disruption and uncertainty related to the protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin have led the state’s recent polls to tighten up somewhat significantly. I only feel comfortable categorizing Wisconsin as a tilt state which I believe would go to Joe Biden if the election were held today, but it’s going to be interesting to watch this state as the election approaches. Similarly, polls in the state of Arizona have tightened significantly, allowing me to only classify this state in the tilt category for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. This rightward slide of recent polls is reflected in other tilt states as well, such as Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, all which have started to move right in the aggregate. Joe Biden’s camp and supporters shouldn’t panic yet, as they still maintain a fairly sizable lead in the Midwest and particularly the Rust Belt, which would be enough to win the election if nothing else changed from 2016’s electoral map, but it’s too early to take the foot off of the gas pedal, especially when considering the circumstances we find ourselves in nationally. Racial tension, COVID-19, the economy, and the upcoming Presidential and Vice Presidential debates will likely have a significant impact on the direction of the race as we approach November 3rd.

We knew polls were going to tighten when Joe Biden was dominating Donald Trump earlier this summer. Now that it’s September, it’s likely that the race is going to continue to evolve and change as new headlines and developments find their ways into our lives, as 2020 has proven time and time again already. If the election were held today, I predict Joe Biden would win with 290 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 248, the closest prediction I’ve made so far. Who do you think is going to win the presidency? Thanks for reading.

DNC & RNC Repap

We’re nearing closer and closer to the 2020 presidential election with each passing day. With the increased racial tensions, rampant pandemic, and systemic inequality in the United States, along with two diametrically opposed candidates on the ballot, one could make the case that this election is the most important in our lifetimes. Despite one-sided adherence to social distancing guidelines and protocols, both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions took place over the past two weeks, and the difference in substance, tone, and messaging reflected how vastly opposed these two parties truly are.

Since the DNC came first, I’ll reflect on it first. If I’m completely honest, I was slightly underwhelmed by the event’s opening night. I understand that as a progressive I’m not the target voter the DNC was trying to interest, but I found the opening night disappointing nonetheless. As the event went along and more notable speakers began making appearances, I was reassured and excited about what was transpiring. Michelle Obama, Dr. Jill Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Joe Biden all gave rhetorically-skilled and substantive speeches over the course of the four-night event. Instead of only offering opposition to Donald Trump, the DNC was able to fully convey the Democratic party’s 2020 platform, which is one full of policies (such as healthcare expansion, police reform, etc.) and ideologies (unity, strength, etc.) which appeal to an array of voters in the Democratic base. There’s only so much that can be done in a socially-distant and largely digital platform, but I felt that by the end of the DNC, the Democratic Party made its message clear, and I’m still excited to vote for Biden / Harris come November 3rd.

The RNC, on the other hand, was a nightmare. What could be considered a Trump family reunion featuring the occasion lunatic guest speaker demonstrated the vitriolic hatred and angst which makes up the modern day Republican Party. From Kimberly Guilfoyle shouting her way through a completely nonsensical speech to Charlie Kirk spreading the same sort of misinformation he does regularly on Twitter, the smaller speakers were absolutely atrocious during this event. The main event speeches such as Melania Trump and Mike Pence weren’t much better, simply droning on and offering no real case as to why voters should choose Donald Trump this time around. To cap things off was Donald Trump’s White House speech which was appalling by all standards. Using the White House as a political prop was an unprecedented and despicable move, and the fact that the audience of over 1,000 people was not socially distanced, masked, or tested speaks volumes as to how Trump views this pandemic as unserious. Trump’s final speech was riddled with lies and misleading claims, and by the end of the event, even the audience didn’t seem to understand his messaging. I would describe the RNC as embarrassing and troublesome for a variety of reasons.

In two days it will be September, which will mean we will be two months away from this year’s historic election. The Democratic and Republican National Conventions highlighted once again how distinctly opposed these two parties’ platforms are, and likely won’t affect the polls too severely in the coming weeks. That’s a story for another day, though, as it seems Donald Trump is coming back in polling as Joe Biden’s lead continues to shrink. What did you think of the conventions this year? Let me know. Thanks for reading.