2019 NBA Finals Game 4 Recap + Game 5 Prediction

Tonight, the Toronto Raptors have the chance to achieve any franchise’s or player’s ultimate goal by securing an NBA championship title. Confident after stealing two games at Oracle Arena in Oakland and coming into game 5 with a “Just hold on, we’re going home” mentality, it seems likely that Toronto will close out the series tonight regardless if Kevin Durant makes a return to action which is still in the air, considering that he is listed as questionable as of the time of this post.

It isn’t lost on me how poetic it would be for Kevin Durant to avenge himself by coming back from being down 3-1 to win an NBA finals, but that just doesn’t seem likely against such a strong and confident Raptors team. As we saw in game 4, the return of Klay Thompson had little impact on the game overall, and almost none in slowing Toronto’s offense. Though Danny Green didn’t show up in game 4 as much as he did in game 3, other Raptors like Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka gave their best effort and sustained momentum enough to put this series just out of reach for Golden State. The Warriors’ lack of depth is being exposed in this series, especially in the frontcourt. DeMarcus Cousins is still rusty, Kevon Looney’s return had little impact, and Andrew Bogut is an absolute liability defensively. The Raptors need to be given the credit that they deserve so far in this series - they are simply playing better basketball than their opponents, which is all that is being asked of them.

Instead of hedging my bet and saying that Golden State will win if Kevin Durant returns for game 5, I’m going to double down and say that the Toronto Raptors will secure the NBA title tonight even if Kevin Durant returns. Nick Nurse is demonstrating hyper-efficient coaching through the adjustments he’s willing to make, and the Warriors’ “backs-against-the-wall” mentality simply isn’t cutting it. I expect Jurassic Park to erupt with excitement this evening, and Kawhi Leonard, now certified dynasty-killer (see Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Finals in 2014), taking home another finals MVP.

Prediction: TOR 109, GSW 102

2019 NBA Finals Game 2 Recap + Game 3 Prediction

I am happy to report that Game 2 of the 2019 NBA finals went pretty much as I predicted that it would right here on this blog. Although my predicted score was a little higher than what actually occurred (did not expect both teams to go ice cold in the 4th quarter), most of my other projections came to fruition. Despite falling victim to some of the same errant play in the first half of game 2 as they demonstrated in game 1, the relentless 3rd quarter Golden State team we’ve come to know and love, or hate depending on who you ask, went on the highest Finals run of 20-0 since the NBA/ABA merger in 1976, and were graced by a clutch shot from Andre Iguodala to take game 2. Swarming defensively, making extra passes to ensure high percentage shot opportunities, and trusting role-players like DeMarcus Cousins and Quinn Cook to make big-time plays all while protecting the basketball helped a hobbling Golden State team put themselves in position to steal game 2 in Toronto and win everyone in America a free Doritos Locos Taco.

If the Toronto Raptors turn up the heat and take advantage of all of Golden State’s current shortcomings leading to an upset victory in the Finals, I’m worried that their championship efforts will be unnecessarily diminished by critics saying it wouldn’t be possible if the Warriors had been running at 100%. The reality is that they’re far from it and, as we saw on Sunday night, that doesn’t matter even on a stage as big as stages get in this sport. If Toronto wants to avoid being meme’d to oblivion for losing to such an injury-stricken Warriors team, they need to make some adjustments now that home court advantage has been taken away from them. While the Raptors can’t also plan on Klay Thompson having an off night due to his injured hamstring, they need to turn their focus to the man who has proven that even when not feeling well, or playing with blurred vision, unanimous MVP Stephen Curry, who can go off and put a game away at any moment. While Fred VanVleet has done a respectable job so far this series keeping up with Curry (and representing the 815), the Raptors need tighter rotations and more double-teams on Curry to slow Golden State’s offense. If Steph is able to get in rhythm at home barring any more energy lapses, this series is as good as over. The Raptors instead need to force Golden State’s role-players and big men to make moves and score points, a task that isn’t a given now that Kevin Durant is out, Klay Thompson is limping, Kevon Looney is out for the series, and Boogie Cousins is still getting back in rhythm.

While Oracle Arena is notorious for having an atmosphere only the Warriors can operate effectively in, it has been known to fail at key times as I said in my earlier post. The Warriors should feel somewhat comfortable, but absolutely cannot take any game for granted in these NBA Finals. The Raptors are playing with the pride and grit sufficient to take down any team in this league, and the Warriors need to have that same intensity if they want to keep home court advantage and complete the 3-peat. I see this as a crucial game in the series, and in reality one that is 50/50. That being said, I’m not going to bet against Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors who are primed and ready to be back in front of their home crowd. This should be a good one.

Prediction: GSW 108, TOR 103