2019 NBA Finals Game 5 Recap + Game 6 Prediction

Perhaps sports predictions aren’t my calling in life. I have been incorrect about the last three NBA Finals games. I could chalk that up to unpredictable variables like injuries, which have plagued this year’s ultimate series, but I’ll just own the fact that I may not be a basketball genius. That being said, my analysis has proven to be fairly accurate, so let’s do some more of that looking back at Monday night’s Game 5 before predicting tonight’s game 6.

What a bummer for all (except maybe not some questionable Toronto-based) NBA fans. Seeing any player go down with what looks to be like a severe injury, such as KD’s ruptured achilles, is heartbreaking. Injuries cast a cloud of doubts and “what-ifs” from sports analysts and fans alike. Watching the first quarter of Game 5 proved how truly dominant Golden State’s offense is when operating at full health, as they made their first five three-pointers and just seemed looser on both ends of the court. As soon as Durant fell again, the Warriors’ offense got tight and so did their lead. Although the splash brothers were able to make some clutch shots down the stretch to give the Warriors the push they needed late, the game was uncomfortably close. As home-court advantage has proven not to make much of a difference in this series, with the road team winning the last four games, it will be interesting to see how things go down tonight. If Nick Nurse manages his time carefully, the Raptors protect the basketball, and Kawhi stays as cold-blooded as he has been as of late, it’s possibly that the Raptors will close out the series tonight. I just can’t see that happening.

Tonight’s Game 6 of the NBA Finals is the last game that will ever be played at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA. All of the Warriors players know the significance that this game has - to send off their legendary arena properly, to avenge KD, and to keep three-peat hopes alive. I said in my last post that the Warriors’ “backs-against-the-wall” mentality would eventually not get them to where they need to go, but Game 6 Klay may have something to say about that. I predict another nail-biting game that forces a must-see Game 7 on Sunday night, which I don’t even know how I will predict if it happens. Coin flipping may be a very real possibility.

Prediction: GSW 116, TOR 113

2019 NBA Finals Game 4 Recap + Game 5 Prediction

Tonight, the Toronto Raptors have the chance to achieve any franchise’s or player’s ultimate goal by securing an NBA championship title. Confident after stealing two games at Oracle Arena in Oakland and coming into game 5 with a “Just hold on, we’re going home” mentality, it seems likely that Toronto will close out the series tonight regardless if Kevin Durant makes a return to action which is still in the air, considering that he is listed as questionable as of the time of this post.

It isn’t lost on me how poetic it would be for Kevin Durant to avenge himself by coming back from being down 3-1 to win an NBA finals, but that just doesn’t seem likely against such a strong and confident Raptors team. As we saw in game 4, the return of Klay Thompson had little impact on the game overall, and almost none in slowing Toronto’s offense. Though Danny Green didn’t show up in game 4 as much as he did in game 3, other Raptors like Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka gave their best effort and sustained momentum enough to put this series just out of reach for Golden State. The Warriors’ lack of depth is being exposed in this series, especially in the frontcourt. DeMarcus Cousins is still rusty, Kevon Looney’s return had little impact, and Andrew Bogut is an absolute liability defensively. The Raptors need to be given the credit that they deserve so far in this series - they are simply playing better basketball than their opponents, which is all that is being asked of them.

Instead of hedging my bet and saying that Golden State will win if Kevin Durant returns for game 5, I’m going to double down and say that the Toronto Raptors will secure the NBA title tonight even if Kevin Durant returns. Nick Nurse is demonstrating hyper-efficient coaching through the adjustments he’s willing to make, and the Warriors’ “backs-against-the-wall” mentality simply isn’t cutting it. I expect Jurassic Park to erupt with excitement this evening, and Kawhi Leonard, now certified dynasty-killer (see Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs Finals in 2014), taking home another finals MVP.

Prediction: TOR 109, GSW 102

2019 NBA Finals Game 3 Recap + Game 4 Prediction

I definitely should’ve waited longer before posting before game 3. Every excruciating camera shot of Klay Thompson sitting anxiously on the bench and his teammates missed open shots, had mindless lapses on defense, and were unable to ever pull ahead of their opposition twisted the knife in me knowing that my prediction for game 3 would end up completely inaccurate, which it did. But that is the unfortunate reality of professional sports: injuries happen. What’s frustrating as a former player and viewer about game 3 is that Stephen Curry not only lead his team in scoring, but in exertion and effort. Diving for loose balls, playing active defense, and making precision passes that lead to high-percentage shots for teammates is exactly what every role-player should have been doing throughout the night at Oracle, but instead, it was as if they accepted defeat far too early. If Klay Thompson doesn’t return for game 4, this series is effectively over in favor of Toronto. The other splash brother is expected to be active tonight, so that is what my prediction for tonight’s game will be based on. If not, I expect a result similar to game 3.

The Raptors won a game that they were supposed to win on Wednesday night. Kawhi Leonard was dominant on both sides of the floor, Danny Green went nuclear and was knocking down what felt like every three-pointer he shot, Serge “I-Block-Ya” Ibaka was ruthless defensively, and Fred VanVleet continued to demonstrate his impressive basketball IQ, as well as making some tough lay-ups and that last ridiculous three-point shot (good lord). Toronto took advantage of the mismatches created from Golden State’s injuries and played at a pace fast enough to tire Golden State, slowing rotations and forcing sluggish offense. The Golden State Warriors are arguably facing their most difficult matchup of the playoffs so far in these finals having to deal with the depth of Toronto while managing so many injuries. This is a very winnable series for the Raptors, and if tonight goes in Toronto’s favor, it will likely end in game 5 barring a miracle return from Kevin Durant.

The Warriors are champions with a level-headed and rational mentality only rivaled by the robotic and machine-like stability provided by Kawhi, The Klaw. If Klay Thompson is able to go tonight, I expect the Warriors to regain some confidence as their talent depth increases, leading to a much-needed victory in game 4 this evening. If not, Toronto takes this one with ease. We shall see - hopefully I’m not blindsided by an inactive listing again.

Prediction: GSW 111, TOR 107

2019 NBA Finals Game 2 Recap + Game 3 Prediction

I am happy to report that Game 2 of the 2019 NBA finals went pretty much as I predicted that it would right here on this blog. Although my predicted score was a little higher than what actually occurred (did not expect both teams to go ice cold in the 4th quarter), most of my other projections came to fruition. Despite falling victim to some of the same errant play in the first half of game 2 as they demonstrated in game 1, the relentless 3rd quarter Golden State team we’ve come to know and love, or hate depending on who you ask, went on the highest Finals run of 20-0 since the NBA/ABA merger in 1976, and were graced by a clutch shot from Andre Iguodala to take game 2. Swarming defensively, making extra passes to ensure high percentage shot opportunities, and trusting role-players like DeMarcus Cousins and Quinn Cook to make big-time plays all while protecting the basketball helped a hobbling Golden State team put themselves in position to steal game 2 in Toronto and win everyone in America a free Doritos Locos Taco.

If the Toronto Raptors turn up the heat and take advantage of all of Golden State’s current shortcomings leading to an upset victory in the Finals, I’m worried that their championship efforts will be unnecessarily diminished by critics saying it wouldn’t be possible if the Warriors had been running at 100%. The reality is that they’re far from it and, as we saw on Sunday night, that doesn’t matter even on a stage as big as stages get in this sport. If Toronto wants to avoid being meme’d to oblivion for losing to such an injury-stricken Warriors team, they need to make some adjustments now that home court advantage has been taken away from them. While the Raptors can’t also plan on Klay Thompson having an off night due to his injured hamstring, they need to turn their focus to the man who has proven that even when not feeling well, or playing with blurred vision, unanimous MVP Stephen Curry, who can go off and put a game away at any moment. While Fred VanVleet has done a respectable job so far this series keeping up with Curry (and representing the 815), the Raptors need tighter rotations and more double-teams on Curry to slow Golden State’s offense. If Steph is able to get in rhythm at home barring any more energy lapses, this series is as good as over. The Raptors instead need to force Golden State’s role-players and big men to make moves and score points, a task that isn’t a given now that Kevin Durant is out, Klay Thompson is limping, Kevon Looney is out for the series, and Boogie Cousins is still getting back in rhythm.

While Oracle Arena is notorious for having an atmosphere only the Warriors can operate effectively in, it has been known to fail at key times as I said in my earlier post. The Warriors should feel somewhat comfortable, but absolutely cannot take any game for granted in these NBA Finals. The Raptors are playing with the pride and grit sufficient to take down any team in this league, and the Warriors need to have that same intensity if they want to keep home court advantage and complete the 3-peat. I see this as a crucial game in the series, and in reality one that is 50/50. That being said, I’m not going to bet against Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors who are primed and ready to be back in front of their home crowd. This should be a good one.

Prediction: GSW 108, TOR 103