2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of August

One month ago today, I made my first presidential election map prediction post on this blog. Since then, quite a bit has happened politically, but very little has change in terms of state predictions. The coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen, the projected GDP Q2 numbers are abysmal, and the president continues to insight division by sending paramilitary troops to cities under the guise of protection, while also hinting that he wants to delay November’s election, which would undermine democracy as we know it. Despite a continuing popular vote lead for former VP Joe Biden, the electoral system in this country has led me to believe that now, despite great national numbers for Biden, the final electoral score will be slightly closer than I predicted in July. Let’s take a look.

For the most part, the states which I categorized as safe for both parties last month have stayed the same. The polling averages in these states are consistent and match historical trends, leading me to believe that these states shouldn’t be surprising come election night. My classifications are as follows: HI (D), WA (D), OR (D), CA (D), IL (D), NY (D), VT (D), MA (D), RI (D), CT (D), NJ (D), DE (D), MD (D), DC (D), ID (R), WY (R), ND (R), SD (R), NE (R), OK (R), AR (R), LA (R), MS (R), AL (R), TN (R), KY (R), and WV (R). If any of these states are within five percentage points on election night, I will be surprised, and the election will likely trend toward whichever candidate is benefitting from such a hypothetical election miracle.

There is compelling polling data which makes me think that states I classified as safe Republican last month have shifted toward Joe Biden, and now can only be classified as likely. Alaska, for example, which for decades has been a conservative stronghold, is closer than expected as of today. The same is true of Indiana and South Carolina. On the other end of the spectrum, I’ve moved Minnesota into the likely column for the Democratic Party. My classifications are as follows for likely states: CO (D), NM (D), MN (D), VA (D), ME (D), AK (R), MT (R), UT (R), KS (R), MO (R), IN (R), and SC (R).

The lean categorizations are always fun. I’m fairly confident in these predictions as of right now, but if they were to flip on election night, I wouldn’t be shocked. Biden needs to hold onto Pennsylvania and Michigan to maintain his confidence in winning the presidency. As polling has shown so far, he should feel good about his chances. I’ve classified the lean states as: NV (D), MI (D), PA (D), NH (D), TX (R), and IA (R).

And now, last but certainly not least, it’s time to predict the tilt states, which I consider the true toss-ups going into the election. I think states like Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona will be closer when it’s game time than they are now. I also think my state of Georgia will be extremely close, and because of that, I will be encouraging as many people as I can to get out and vote. Overall, I think these states will split electorally between the two candidates, but anything can happen with three months until the election. I classify the tilt states as: AZ (D), WI (D), FL (D), OH (R), NC (R), and GA (R).

As we know by now, politics, polls, and perceptions can change very quickly. With three months until Election Day, there is still a lot of time for the entire landscape to shift in either direction. But given the state of affairs in the country, and pending the reception to Joe Biden’s upcoming running mate selection, these are my predictions as of August. I have Joe Biden winning with 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219. If the election were held today, who do you think would win the presidency? Let me know. Thanks for reading.