Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of October

In a normal election year cycle, one or two “October surprises” could be anticipated. Usually taking the form of unexpected news stories or revelations, these surprises can actually have an impact in states where the final popular vote count is close. This year’s election cycle, however, just like the rest of 2020, is the exact opposite of normal. One week into October and we have already found out about Donald Trump’s tax return bombshell, along with the President becoming a coronavirus super spreader who is infecting the entire White House with his irresponsibility. With less than a month to go until the last day of the election, national and statewide polling is looking promising for Joe Biden’s chances. This, of course, doesn’t mean we should become complacent or comfortable; things can change quickly. We should instead use these indicators as motivation to get out and vote if we haven’t already. In this post, I’ll be predicting the 2020 presidential election map, which is something I’ll only do once more before election day. Let’s get into it.

With time dwindling down before election day, prediction forecasts are starting to become more decisive in their projections. FiveThirtyEight, for example, calls Joe Biden a “favorite” to defeat Donald Trump, currently giving him an 84% chance of doing so. Largely, this is because the states where the popular vote margin will be high are solidifying more by the day, especially since the president caught the coronavirus. What’s interesting is that, according to my predictions, Joe Biden’s “safe” states like California, Illinois, and New York among others guarantee him 183 electoral votes, while Trump’s safe states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Utah among others only guarantee him 94 electoral votes. This disparity in given states puts Joe Biden at a big advantage, needing to win less battleground states in order to win electorally than Donald Trump.

Even some states that were Republican strongholds for decades such as Georgia and Texas are up for grabs in this year’s election. Whether this is because of changing demographics, our current political circumstances, or some combination of both, it’s undeniable that these states will likely be closer than they have been in a long time. As a Georgia voter who has already sent off his absentee ballot, I’d love to see my state go blue, but with past incidences of voter suppression and low turnout in key demographics, I’m currently predicting a Trump win both here and in Texas. Biden doesn’t need these states like Trump does, though, so making them a problem area for the Trump campaign, especially in regard to campaign finance, bodes well for Biden and company.

What was considered for years a “blue wall” or Democratically leaning voters decided against their norm and helped elect Donald Trump in 2016. There are many reasons why this happened, but I don’t see it happening again in 2020. Biden’s ties to the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would likely seal the election for him if it were held today, and likely will in November if nothing changes. Those states, along with Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and others which were formally either red or swing states that are now turning purple or blue, pad Biden’s lead comfortably.

If the election were held today, I believe Joe Biden would comfortably become the next president of the United States, winning 319-219. I’m sure that Donald Trump’s fascistic tendencies of questioning the reliability of voting by mail will only worsen as the election nears, but we’ll cross (and burn) that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, it’s important to stay safe, informed, and active by voting, keeping up with the news, and listening to the scientific community. Thanks for reading, and enjoy tonight’s vice presidential debate.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of August

One month ago today, I made my first presidential election map prediction post on this blog. Since then, quite a bit has happened politically, but very little has change in terms of state predictions. The coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen, the projected GDP Q2 numbers are abysmal, and the president continues to insight division by sending paramilitary troops to cities under the guise of protection, while also hinting that he wants to delay November’s election, which would undermine democracy as we know it. Despite a continuing popular vote lead for former VP Joe Biden, the electoral system in this country has led me to believe that now, despite great national numbers for Biden, the final electoral score will be slightly closer than I predicted in July. Let’s take a look.

For the most part, the states which I categorized as safe for both parties last month have stayed the same. The polling averages in these states are consistent and match historical trends, leading me to believe that these states shouldn’t be surprising come election night. My classifications are as follows: HI (D), WA (D), OR (D), CA (D), IL (D), NY (D), VT (D), MA (D), RI (D), CT (D), NJ (D), DE (D), MD (D), DC (D), ID (R), WY (R), ND (R), SD (R), NE (R), OK (R), AR (R), LA (R), MS (R), AL (R), TN (R), KY (R), and WV (R). If any of these states are within five percentage points on election night, I will be surprised, and the election will likely trend toward whichever candidate is benefitting from such a hypothetical election miracle.

There is compelling polling data which makes me think that states I classified as safe Republican last month have shifted toward Joe Biden, and now can only be classified as likely. Alaska, for example, which for decades has been a conservative stronghold, is closer than expected as of today. The same is true of Indiana and South Carolina. On the other end of the spectrum, I’ve moved Minnesota into the likely column for the Democratic Party. My classifications are as follows for likely states: CO (D), NM (D), MN (D), VA (D), ME (D), AK (R), MT (R), UT (R), KS (R), MO (R), IN (R), and SC (R).

The lean categorizations are always fun. I’m fairly confident in these predictions as of right now, but if they were to flip on election night, I wouldn’t be shocked. Biden needs to hold onto Pennsylvania and Michigan to maintain his confidence in winning the presidency. As polling has shown so far, he should feel good about his chances. I’ve classified the lean states as: NV (D), MI (D), PA (D), NH (D), TX (R), and IA (R).

And now, last but certainly not least, it’s time to predict the tilt states, which I consider the true toss-ups going into the election. I think states like Wisconsin, Florida, and Arizona will be closer when it’s game time than they are now. I also think my state of Georgia will be extremely close, and because of that, I will be encouraging as many people as I can to get out and vote. Overall, I think these states will split electorally between the two candidates, but anything can happen with three months until the election. I classify the tilt states as: AZ (D), WI (D), FL (D), OH (R), NC (R), and GA (R).

As we know by now, politics, polls, and perceptions can change very quickly. With three months until Election Day, there is still a lot of time for the entire landscape to shift in either direction. But given the state of affairs in the country, and pending the reception to Joe Biden’s upcoming running mate selection, these are my predictions as of August. I have Joe Biden winning with 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219. If the election were held today, who do you think would win the presidency? Let me know. Thanks for reading.