2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of September

We are now a mere two months away from the most impactful presidential election of our lifetimes, and debatably in American history. The ramifications this election will have are going to directly impact generations not only domestically, but all around the world. Recent polling has shown that the race is tightening up slightly, but this was to be expected as we neared closer to election day. Donald Trump’s favorability continues to poll miserably, but the nationwide gap between him and Joe Biden has shrunk slightly, sitting at +7.0 for Biden according to FiveThirtyEight, who still give him a 69% chance of winning the election. In this post, I’m going to forecast how I think things would go down if the election were held today. Let’s jump into it.

The states we can classify as solidly Democratic or Republican leaning haven’t changed and won’t change much leading up to November 3rd. States like California, Illinois, New York, Wyoming, Mississippi, and Alabama, for example, are almost guaranteed to go to their respective preferred candidates. The likely states, such as Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Montana, Utah, and Missouri haven’t changed much, either, demonstrating the polarization and steadfast voting habits of some states in the country. Things do get interesting, however, when we look at the lean and tilt classifications, which actually have changed slightly in Donald Trump’s favor after recent events such as the Republican National Convention and unrest after the police shooting of Jacob Blake and the ensuing protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Whether moral and logical or not, the disruption and uncertainty related to the protests and riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin have led the state’s recent polls to tighten up somewhat significantly. I only feel comfortable categorizing Wisconsin as a tilt state which I believe would go to Joe Biden if the election were held today, but it’s going to be interesting to watch this state as the election approaches. Similarly, polls in the state of Arizona have tightened significantly, allowing me to only classify this state in the tilt category for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. This rightward slide of recent polls is reflected in other tilt states as well, such as Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia, all which have started to move right in the aggregate. Joe Biden’s camp and supporters shouldn’t panic yet, as they still maintain a fairly sizable lead in the Midwest and particularly the Rust Belt, which would be enough to win the election if nothing else changed from 2016’s electoral map, but it’s too early to take the foot off of the gas pedal, especially when considering the circumstances we find ourselves in nationally. Racial tension, COVID-19, the economy, and the upcoming Presidential and Vice Presidential debates will likely have a significant impact on the direction of the race as we approach November 3rd.

We knew polls were going to tighten when Joe Biden was dominating Donald Trump earlier this summer. Now that it’s September, it’s likely that the race is going to continue to evolve and change as new headlines and developments find their ways into our lives, as 2020 has proven time and time again already. If the election were held today, I predict Joe Biden would win with 290 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 248, the closest prediction I’ve made so far. Who do you think is going to win the presidency? Thanks for reading.