Opinion: What Happens Next in the Democratic Primary

I’m sure you’re very well aware by now that former Vice President Joe Biden over-performed massively on Super Tuesday. After being expected to only win five or six contests at the most, Biden was able to win eleven, establishing himself as the clear frontrunner moving forward. This surprise showing led to underperformance from the rest of field, particularly from Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg. Their results were so dismal that in the past two days, both of these candidates have dropped out from the race. It’s now a two-man fight between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard.

All jokes aside: We’re reaching the final and most important stages of the Democratic primary. In my last opinion post, I explained the DNC’s rules for becoming the party’s nominee. Basically, the candidate who does so will either secure 1,991 nominations from primaries, or will be pushed over that number by superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin over the summer. The odds are most likely that no candidate will win outright, but if one were to do so, it would be Joe Biden.

Endorsements from Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg indicate a clear moderate coalition behind Biden as the establishment figurehead candidate to beat, which will be difficult to do as he’s polling so well in the states moving forward such as Florida, Ohio, and Illinois. The world is waiting with baited-breath to see who Elizabeth Warren will endorse, if anyone. If she endorses Biden, the race is over. If she endorses Sanders, the race is likely still over, but things might get end slightly more interestingly.

The March 15th debate between Biden and Sanders is going to be very telling, and hopefully more substantive and policy-focused than the ones which came before it. I expect this race to get uglier before it ends, unfortunately, as both of the candidates left are looking for knockout punches. If I had to make predictions moving forward, they would be: Elizabeth Warren endorses Joe Biden, Biden dominates the rest of the primaries, and becomes the party’s nominee with a large plurality at the Convention over the summer. What do you think will happen next? Thanks for reading.