Opinion: What Happens Next in the Democratic Primary

I’m sure you’re very well aware by now that former Vice President Joe Biden over-performed massively on Super Tuesday. After being expected to only win five or six contests at the most, Biden was able to win eleven, establishing himself as the clear frontrunner moving forward. This surprise showing led to underperformance from the rest of field, particularly from Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg. Their results were so dismal that in the past two days, both of these candidates have dropped out from the race. It’s now a two-man fight between Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Tulsi Gabbard.

All jokes aside: We’re reaching the final and most important stages of the Democratic primary. In my last opinion post, I explained the DNC’s rules for becoming the party’s nominee. Basically, the candidate who does so will either secure 1,991 nominations from primaries, or will be pushed over that number by superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin over the summer. The odds are most likely that no candidate will win outright, but if one were to do so, it would be Joe Biden.

Endorsements from Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Michael Bloomberg indicate a clear moderate coalition behind Biden as the establishment figurehead candidate to beat, which will be difficult to do as he’s polling so well in the states moving forward such as Florida, Ohio, and Illinois. The world is waiting with baited-breath to see who Elizabeth Warren will endorse, if anyone. If she endorses Biden, the race is over. If she endorses Sanders, the race is likely still over, but things might get end slightly more interestingly.

The March 15th debate between Biden and Sanders is going to be very telling, and hopefully more substantive and policy-focused than the ones which came before it. I expect this race to get uglier before it ends, unfortunately, as both of the candidates left are looking for knockout punches. If I had to make predictions moving forward, they would be: Elizabeth Warren endorses Joe Biden, Biden dominates the rest of the primaries, and becomes the party’s nominee with a large plurality at the Convention over the summer. What do you think will happen next? Thanks for reading.

Opinion: How Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar Dropping Out Will Impact Super Tuesday

The first four Democratic Primary contests were all relatively straightforward. After South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s surprising and narrow victory at the disastrous Iowa caucus kickoff, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders went on to dominate both the New Hampshire Primary and Nevada Caucus, cementing his place as the frontrunner early-on and moving forward. Then came the atrocity of a debate days before South Carolina’s primary, where Joe Biden ended up outperforming the polls and winning handily, reestablishing himself as a worthy contender moving forward in the race. I, along with most, didn’t think much would change in the few days between Saturday’s primary and the upcoming Super Tuesday, but low and behold, a wrench has been thrown into the race with the sudden departure of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar from the race.

The Democratic National Committee has rules which establish that each candidate needs to surpass a viability threshold of fifteen percent support in order to begin accumulating pledged delegates. If a candidate is able to secure a majority of the delegates (1991 of them) before the Democratic National Convention, then that candidate automatically becomes the party’s nominee for the General Election. If not, then there is what is called a contested convention, and DNC officials known as Superdelegates vote and effectively select the nominee they want to choose, regardless of whether there is a candidate with more popular votes or a plurality of delegates at that point. Pretty complicated, but those are the primary rules in a nutshell.

Ideologically similar candidates split support from one another, and a crowded field of likeminded candidates often sabotages each candidate involved. In this particular primary, the moderate / establishment candidates had been pulling support from one another, and that trend looked likely to continue into Super Tuesday’s many contests. This led to Bernie Sanders becoming a clear frontrunner, as his only progressive competition up until this point had been Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. By dropping out of the race and endorsing Joe Biden within just days of Super Tuesday, moderate candidates Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are signaling to the electorate that the establishment is rallying all of their support behind Joe Biden for the nomination in an attempt to prevent Bernie Sanders from securing the highly-coveted majority of earned delegates. The Democratic primary has been known for pulling these sorts of tricks before… see 2016.

At this point I really only see two possible outcomes for this Democratic Primary. The first is that the young demographic shows up on Super Tuesday unlike they did in South Carolina, and that Bernie Sanders secures a nomination from a majority of delegates in the coming months. The chances of this happening are slimmer now that support will be consolidated behind Joe Biden. The second outcome is that the young vote will stay home as they are infamously known for, and that Joe Biden will be handed the nomination at a contested convention over the summer. We will likely know which of these two paths we are headed down after tomorrow’s votes, and there is no way to known for sure what is going to happen.

Politics are increasingly unpredictable in today’s climate. The electorate doesn’t get to know what happens behind closed doors, but it’s certainly easy to connect the dots and infer about connections between events and candidates. Either the Democratic Party will continue to implode over the coming days and months, or they will rally behind a popular candidate capable of defeating Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Tomorrow will be very telling, and I can’t wait to see what happens. We shall see. Things certainly just got a lot more interesting. Thanks for reading.

Opinion: Why Bernie Sanders Should Be The Democratic Nominee For President

It’s common knowledge that the modern political era in the U.S. is extremely divisive. At the same time, however, there seems to be a shift in the way that people of all walks of life view their own political involvement, as increased awareness has led to more substantive discussions of differences in policy and worldview. In what can sometimes feel like a toxic environment, I find it important to take a bird’s eye view and analyze the issues affecting the most Americans, regardless of political party or defining characteristics, and to try to come to a common understanding across party lines. After spending months becoming more politically educated and involved, I believe I’ve begun to understand what has been happening to our country’s politics over the past few years, and why it’s my opinion that Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic nominee for President.

When Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for President in 2016, he did so by presenting himself as a political outsider. Those who felt disenfranchised and left behind by the political landscape at that time saw Trump as someone who, at the very least, seemed to relate to their struggles and presented himself as different from the norm. Whether or not any of that was true or came to fruition is up for debate, but the root cause being millions of people feeling left behind and susceptible to his political rhetoric is undeniable fact. For decades, conventional and calculated candidates gave stump speeches and played into an established political norm, which many disregarded. The reality now is that people are starting to realize they do have a political voice, they can create a movement, and they can take their country in a different direction that benefits them and their families. We are in an era of populism which is uprooting the decades of elitism which came before it.

Candidates who speak directly to their bases needs and desires are the ones who gain momentum and popularity. Since FDR’s presidency decades ago we’ve seen glimmers of populist rhetoric from various presidents, but no systemic change in favor of the everyday working American. However, some of the country’s most important and necessary steps forward, such as the civil rights movement and the feminist movement, were built upon progressive populist movements which were met by establishment resistance. Bernie Sanders has built a giant grassroots movement made up of small contributions from millions of working people on the promise that he will give them things they need, such as universal healthcare, student and medical debt forgiveness, a living minimum wage, and many other beneficial policy proposals. Sanders and Trump even share some policy viewpoints, particularly on trade. Bernie has won the first three Democratic primaries and caucuses, which could be the start of a primary landslide. Now is a time to encourage as much political participation as possible.

This country is truly at a crossroads in the 2020 election. While I have somewhat established political ideologies and viewpoints, I respect others’ perspectives as long as they are well-thought out and as long as they aren’t presented with animosity. It should be okay to believe in something different than someone else and to still get along with them. Appealing to the needs of as many Americans as possible is key in the upcoming election, not bending to the will of donors or political pressure. That is why I think Bernie Sanders should face off against Donald Trump in the general election this year, and the will of the people will decide which direction we take our country moving forward. Thanks for reading.

Here’s a link to register to vote: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote