Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.