Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.

Final Presidential Debate Analysis

On Thursday night, former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump met on the debate stage in Nashville, Tennessee for the final time. After what many called a disastrous first debate, changes were made to improve the event, including muting microphones for each candidate’s two-minute initial responses. These changes seem to have worked, as snapshot polls reflect that this debate was more informative than the first. But with less than two weeks until Election Day, each candidate’s strategy was clear: Biden was to hold steady, and Trump was to throw haymakers. It seems that despite Trump’s increased attempts at civility while still challenging Biden didn’t land and that Biden will continue as the clear favorite ahead of November 3rd.

One of the most improved debate elements on Thursday was the moderation. NBC News anchor Kristen Welker assertively but fairly gave both candidates chances to fully answer questions and defend themselves from accusations. This varied greatly from Chris Wallace’s moderation in the first debate, which according to many, couldn’t stop the constant interrupting which defined the candidates’ first encounter. Many of the most pressing issues the country is currently facing were addressed, including race relations, health care, the coronavirus, and climate change. With over 50,000,000 ballots already cast in the 2020 election, the effectiveness of potential October surprises is more questionable than usual, and I don’t think any bombshells were dropped this time around.

Despite seemingly making an effort to appear more humble and respectful than he did in the first debate, Donald Trump fell back on his tendency to make erroneous claims. At one point he stated that immigrants who seek asylum and return for a court date are “low IQ”, and at another point once again claimed he has done the most for the Black community since President Abraham Lincoln. When contrasted with Biden’s direct approach in speaking to the issues the American people are facing, the characters of the candidates on the stage becomes overwhelmingly clear.

Although we haven’t received an abundance of post-debate national or state polls, it appears that Joe Biden’s lead is holding steady with only 10 days left until the end of the election. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently gives Joe Biden an 87% chance of winning, and while this certainly isn’t a definitive prediction, it makes Donald Trump’s chances for mounting another unprecedented comeback extremely slim. But after the 2016 election, we know that anything is possible, especially under an electoral college system that disproportionately benefits the Republican Party.

At this point, the choice is clear. With a country facing so many issues and as partisan as ever, I expect record-high voter turnout for the 2020 cycle. It’s unfortunate that the second debate is the final debate instead of having a third as was originally scheduled, but I suppose that’s what happens when super-spreader events are held irresponsibly. Who do you think won the final presidential debate of 2020? Thanks for reading. Now go vote if you haven’t already.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of October

In a normal election year cycle, one or two “October surprises” could be anticipated. Usually taking the form of unexpected news stories or revelations, these surprises can actually have an impact in states where the final popular vote count is close. This year’s election cycle, however, just like the rest of 2020, is the exact opposite of normal. One week into October and we have already found out about Donald Trump’s tax return bombshell, along with the President becoming a coronavirus super spreader who is infecting the entire White House with his irresponsibility. With less than a month to go until the last day of the election, national and statewide polling is looking promising for Joe Biden’s chances. This, of course, doesn’t mean we should become complacent or comfortable; things can change quickly. We should instead use these indicators as motivation to get out and vote if we haven’t already. In this post, I’ll be predicting the 2020 presidential election map, which is something I’ll only do once more before election day. Let’s get into it.

With time dwindling down before election day, prediction forecasts are starting to become more decisive in their projections. FiveThirtyEight, for example, calls Joe Biden a “favorite” to defeat Donald Trump, currently giving him an 84% chance of doing so. Largely, this is because the states where the popular vote margin will be high are solidifying more by the day, especially since the president caught the coronavirus. What’s interesting is that, according to my predictions, Joe Biden’s “safe” states like California, Illinois, and New York among others guarantee him 183 electoral votes, while Trump’s safe states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Utah among others only guarantee him 94 electoral votes. This disparity in given states puts Joe Biden at a big advantage, needing to win less battleground states in order to win electorally than Donald Trump.

Even some states that were Republican strongholds for decades such as Georgia and Texas are up for grabs in this year’s election. Whether this is because of changing demographics, our current political circumstances, or some combination of both, it’s undeniable that these states will likely be closer than they have been in a long time. As a Georgia voter who has already sent off his absentee ballot, I’d love to see my state go blue, but with past incidences of voter suppression and low turnout in key demographics, I’m currently predicting a Trump win both here and in Texas. Biden doesn’t need these states like Trump does, though, so making them a problem area for the Trump campaign, especially in regard to campaign finance, bodes well for Biden and company.

What was considered for years a “blue wall” or Democratically leaning voters decided against their norm and helped elect Donald Trump in 2016. There are many reasons why this happened, but I don’t see it happening again in 2020. Biden’s ties to the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would likely seal the election for him if it were held today, and likely will in November if nothing changes. Those states, along with Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and others which were formally either red or swing states that are now turning purple or blue, pad Biden’s lead comfortably.

If the election were held today, I believe Joe Biden would comfortably become the next president of the United States, winning 319-219. I’m sure that Donald Trump’s fascistic tendencies of questioning the reliability of voting by mail will only worsen as the election nears, but we’ll cross (and burn) that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, it’s important to stay safe, informed, and active by voting, keeping up with the news, and listening to the scientific community. Thanks for reading, and enjoy tonight’s vice presidential debate.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of July

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in the United States of America, and I’m sure many will still be partying and celebrating their country with the traditional fireworks and cookouts. I’m fortunate enough to spend this holiday weekend with family, but instead of pretending to have an overinflated sense of patriotism at my country’s weakest point in my lifetime, I will be reflecting and looking ahead. I find that the importance of the injustices and tragedies happening right now outweigh the traditional celebration of this nation. The systemic inequities placed upon the minority population in this country, our failed response to COVID-19 which perpetually worsens as both our leaders and citizens fail to act responsibly, and the lack of basic respect both legally and rhetorically have led me to hope for a better future as I continue to educate myself presently. This Fourth Of July holiday also falls in the middle of an election year, in which we will be granted the opportunity to practice our right to vote for the next president of the United States and to choose our country’s path forward. With only four months until the election, and as campaign season begins to accelerate rather quickly, I believe it’s time to assess how I think the 2020 presidential election would unfold if it were held today. I will be making monthly predictions right up until just days before the actual election. Let’s get into it.

There are certain elements which remain constant and cyclical despite the many variables which decide presidential elections in this country. Some states are consistently partisan in their vote, and because of that, it can be assumed safely that these states will vote for their preferred party on election day. As pictured here, the states that I assume as givens are as follows: HI (D), WA (D), OR, (D), CA (D), IL (D), NY (D), ME (D), VT (D), MA (D), RI (D), CT (D), NJ (D), DE (D), MD (D), DC (D), AK (R), ID (R), UT (R), WY (R), ND (R), SD (R), NE (R), KS (R), OK (R), MO (R), AR (R), LA (R), MS (R), AL (R), SC (R), TN (R), KY (R), IN (R), and WV (R). Visualizing the states which, barring an election-night shock, will go to their presumed parties, makes one realize just how vital swing states are in a given election cycle.

Some states generally vote for one party opposed to the other, but can be slightly swayed due to pressing economic or social issues at the time of voting. As of July, I’m categorizing the likely states as follows: CO (D), NM (D), VA (D), and MT (R). None of these states’ would differ from the 2016 election, but since the difference in votes was more slim last go around, I’m marking these states as likely as opposed to safe for this year’s bout.

Now things get fun. These states are likely to lean in the direction of a particular candidate, but the recent polling makes me think that the eventual popular vote results will be closer than usual in the following states: MN (D), NH (D), IA (R), and TX (R). Three of these states vary back and forth from election-to-election, but it is a surprise to see Texas in the lean column. For decades, Texas was one of the deepest red states in the entire country. Recently, however, polling and senate races have proven that the developing population centers of Austin and Houston are slowly turning this state purple. If Donald Trump is forced to spend some of his campaign finances in the Lone Star State, he will be prevented from spending those assets in the most important states in the upcoming election.

These states are the ones I will be watching most closely on election night, as their outcomes will be both unpredictable and vital for whichever candidate ends up winning the presidency. These states will likely be toss-ups, and for that reason, I have only tilted them in either direction. Those are: NV (D), AZ (D), WI (D), MI (D), PA (D), NC (D), FL (D), OH (R), and GA (R). These predictions are somewhat based on recent polling, but also on the current state of affairs in the country. Voters in states such as Arizona and Florida which have been hit so hard recently by the coronavirus pandemic are likely looking for a different leadership approach than the one currently being offered by the Trump administration. Polls in the midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan have been highly favorable for Joe Biden, but after what happened in 2016’s election, I’m not comfortable marking either as anything more than tilted. Pennsylvania and Ohio tend to vote in unison with one another (except for most recently when they split in the 2004 election with OH going to Bush and PA going to Kerry), but I think Joe Biden coming from Pennsylvania will push him over the edge in the state. It’s entirely possible that I could be wrong about these states, but these are just my predictions based on if the election were held today, hence the upcoming monthly editions of these posts. As of now, I have Joe Biden winning the presidency with 334 electoral votes over Donald Trump’s 204.

There are many factors which will impact the election once it is upon us in November. The state of the economy, the severity of the coronavirus, the reaction to Joe Biden’s vice presidential selection, and the outcome of the presidential debates are just a few of the many variables which will decide who our next president will be. But as we enter the Fourth of July weekend, I find it important for us to reflect on where we are as a nation, and what kind of country we want to build and be proud of moving forward. Thanks for reading.

Opinion: Why Bernie Sanders Should Be The Democratic Nominee For President

It’s common knowledge that the modern political era in the U.S. is extremely divisive. At the same time, however, there seems to be a shift in the way that people of all walks of life view their own political involvement, as increased awareness has led to more substantive discussions of differences in policy and worldview. In what can sometimes feel like a toxic environment, I find it important to take a bird’s eye view and analyze the issues affecting the most Americans, regardless of political party or defining characteristics, and to try to come to a common understanding across party lines. After spending months becoming more politically educated and involved, I believe I’ve begun to understand what has been happening to our country’s politics over the past few years, and why it’s my opinion that Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic nominee for President.

When Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for President in 2016, he did so by presenting himself as a political outsider. Those who felt disenfranchised and left behind by the political landscape at that time saw Trump as someone who, at the very least, seemed to relate to their struggles and presented himself as different from the norm. Whether or not any of that was true or came to fruition is up for debate, but the root cause being millions of people feeling left behind and susceptible to his political rhetoric is undeniable fact. For decades, conventional and calculated candidates gave stump speeches and played into an established political norm, which many disregarded. The reality now is that people are starting to realize they do have a political voice, they can create a movement, and they can take their country in a different direction that benefits them and their families. We are in an era of populism which is uprooting the decades of elitism which came before it.

Candidates who speak directly to their bases needs and desires are the ones who gain momentum and popularity. Since FDR’s presidency decades ago we’ve seen glimmers of populist rhetoric from various presidents, but no systemic change in favor of the everyday working American. However, some of the country’s most important and necessary steps forward, such as the civil rights movement and the feminist movement, were built upon progressive populist movements which were met by establishment resistance. Bernie Sanders has built a giant grassroots movement made up of small contributions from millions of working people on the promise that he will give them things they need, such as universal healthcare, student and medical debt forgiveness, a living minimum wage, and many other beneficial policy proposals. Sanders and Trump even share some policy viewpoints, particularly on trade. Bernie has won the first three Democratic primaries and caucuses, which could be the start of a primary landslide. Now is a time to encourage as much political participation as possible.

This country is truly at a crossroads in the 2020 election. While I have somewhat established political ideologies and viewpoints, I respect others’ perspectives as long as they are well-thought out and as long as they aren’t presented with animosity. It should be okay to believe in something different than someone else and to still get along with them. Appealing to the needs of as many Americans as possible is key in the upcoming election, not bending to the will of donors or political pressure. That is why I think Bernie Sanders should face off against Donald Trump in the general election this year, and the will of the people will decide which direction we take our country moving forward. Thanks for reading.

Here’s a link to register to vote: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote