Joe Biden Wins The 2020 Presidential Election

It’s done. Over the past four days, the United States has waited patiently as legally-cast ballots were counted in key swing states across the country. On Saturday morning, Pennsylvania was called by most mainstream media news networks, putting Joe Biden above the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency. Kamala Harris is now the first woman to be Vice President-Elect, which shows how far we’ve come as a nation.

This election has served as a decisive referendum against Donald Trump’s failed leadership. After dealing with vast racial tensions, an uncontrolled pandemic, and constant attacks against democracy, the American people chose Joe Biden with more votes than any other presidential candidate in the country’s history.

Honor, humility, empathy, and respect will return to the White House. Competence and dedication will return to the White House. We now have a President and Vice President-Elect who will govern for all Americans, not just for their supporters. Today is historic, and I’m so relieved to know definitively that we’ve made the right decision.

Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.

Final Presidential Debate Analysis

On Thursday night, former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump met on the debate stage in Nashville, Tennessee for the final time. After what many called a disastrous first debate, changes were made to improve the event, including muting microphones for each candidate’s two-minute initial responses. These changes seem to have worked, as snapshot polls reflect that this debate was more informative than the first. But with less than two weeks until Election Day, each candidate’s strategy was clear: Biden was to hold steady, and Trump was to throw haymakers. It seems that despite Trump’s increased attempts at civility while still challenging Biden didn’t land and that Biden will continue as the clear favorite ahead of November 3rd.

One of the most improved debate elements on Thursday was the moderation. NBC News anchor Kristen Welker assertively but fairly gave both candidates chances to fully answer questions and defend themselves from accusations. This varied greatly from Chris Wallace’s moderation in the first debate, which according to many, couldn’t stop the constant interrupting which defined the candidates’ first encounter. Many of the most pressing issues the country is currently facing were addressed, including race relations, health care, the coronavirus, and climate change. With over 50,000,000 ballots already cast in the 2020 election, the effectiveness of potential October surprises is more questionable than usual, and I don’t think any bombshells were dropped this time around.

Despite seemingly making an effort to appear more humble and respectful than he did in the first debate, Donald Trump fell back on his tendency to make erroneous claims. At one point he stated that immigrants who seek asylum and return for a court date are “low IQ”, and at another point once again claimed he has done the most for the Black community since President Abraham Lincoln. When contrasted with Biden’s direct approach in speaking to the issues the American people are facing, the characters of the candidates on the stage becomes overwhelmingly clear.

Although we haven’t received an abundance of post-debate national or state polls, it appears that Joe Biden’s lead is holding steady with only 10 days left until the end of the election. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently gives Joe Biden an 87% chance of winning, and while this certainly isn’t a definitive prediction, it makes Donald Trump’s chances for mounting another unprecedented comeback extremely slim. But after the 2016 election, we know that anything is possible, especially under an electoral college system that disproportionately benefits the Republican Party.

At this point, the choice is clear. With a country facing so many issues and as partisan as ever, I expect record-high voter turnout for the 2020 cycle. It’s unfortunate that the second debate is the final debate instead of having a third as was originally scheduled, but I suppose that’s what happens when super-spreader events are held irresponsibly. Who do you think won the final presidential debate of 2020? Thanks for reading. Now go vote if you haven’t already.

2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of October

In a normal election year cycle, one or two “October surprises” could be anticipated. Usually taking the form of unexpected news stories or revelations, these surprises can actually have an impact in states where the final popular vote count is close. This year’s election cycle, however, just like the rest of 2020, is the exact opposite of normal. One week into October and we have already found out about Donald Trump’s tax return bombshell, along with the President becoming a coronavirus super spreader who is infecting the entire White House with his irresponsibility. With less than a month to go until the last day of the election, national and statewide polling is looking promising for Joe Biden’s chances. This, of course, doesn’t mean we should become complacent or comfortable; things can change quickly. We should instead use these indicators as motivation to get out and vote if we haven’t already. In this post, I’ll be predicting the 2020 presidential election map, which is something I’ll only do once more before election day. Let’s get into it.

With time dwindling down before election day, prediction forecasts are starting to become more decisive in their projections. FiveThirtyEight, for example, calls Joe Biden a “favorite” to defeat Donald Trump, currently giving him an 84% chance of doing so. Largely, this is because the states where the popular vote margin will be high are solidifying more by the day, especially since the president caught the coronavirus. What’s interesting is that, according to my predictions, Joe Biden’s “safe” states like California, Illinois, and New York among others guarantee him 183 electoral votes, while Trump’s safe states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Utah among others only guarantee him 94 electoral votes. This disparity in given states puts Joe Biden at a big advantage, needing to win less battleground states in order to win electorally than Donald Trump.

Even some states that were Republican strongholds for decades such as Georgia and Texas are up for grabs in this year’s election. Whether this is because of changing demographics, our current political circumstances, or some combination of both, it’s undeniable that these states will likely be closer than they have been in a long time. As a Georgia voter who has already sent off his absentee ballot, I’d love to see my state go blue, but with past incidences of voter suppression and low turnout in key demographics, I’m currently predicting a Trump win both here and in Texas. Biden doesn’t need these states like Trump does, though, so making them a problem area for the Trump campaign, especially in regard to campaign finance, bodes well for Biden and company.

What was considered for years a “blue wall” or Democratically leaning voters decided against their norm and helped elect Donald Trump in 2016. There are many reasons why this happened, but I don’t see it happening again in 2020. Biden’s ties to the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would likely seal the election for him if it were held today, and likely will in November if nothing changes. Those states, along with Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and others which were formally either red or swing states that are now turning purple or blue, pad Biden’s lead comfortably.

If the election were held today, I believe Joe Biden would comfortably become the next president of the United States, winning 319-219. I’m sure that Donald Trump’s fascistic tendencies of questioning the reliability of voting by mail will only worsen as the election nears, but we’ll cross (and burn) that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, it’s important to stay safe, informed, and active by voting, keeping up with the news, and listening to the scientific community. Thanks for reading, and enjoy tonight’s vice presidential debate.

Why Joe Biden Should Choose Kamala Harris As His VP

A presidential candidate’s VP choice can make or break their entire campaign. The electorate’s reaction to the selection, the VP’s record and past, and the opportunities for the opponent to attack the eventual selection are vital in determining who wins the presidency come election day. As we all know by now, this year’s upcoming election is unlike any we’ve ever had in this country. November 3rd will serve as a referendum as America decides the direction it wants to continue heading, by either selecting Joe Biden or Donald Trump to hold office for the next four years. To add to the magnitude of this election, we are in the midst of a global pandemic and massive civil rights movement, all while the economy slowly collapses and the United States becomes an international laughing stock. In this post, I’m going to make the case for why I believe Joe Biden should choose Kamala Harris as his VP because of her policy proposals, somewhat progressive ideals, and qualifications met which were set by the Biden campaign.

I need to start by stating I will be voting for Joe Biden regardless of who he selects as his VP, as the shortlist is filled with extremely qualified, intelligent, and determined women. Whether it ends up being Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, Elizabeth Warren, Karen Bass, or any of the other women being considered for the position, I’m sure that the Biden campaign is confident in their eventual selection, and that whoever is chosen has been properly vetted for the job. Joe Biden has already committed to selecting a woman as his running mate, and has received pressure to select a woman of color more recently given the events in the country. Kamala Harris, who for a short time led in polls against her competitors in the Democratic primary race, meets all of the qualifications set by the Biden campaign.

Representation is important. We’ve never had a black woman selected as a vice presidential running mate in this country, which is completely overdue. Kamala Harris has experience running a campaign on a national level, on the debate stage, and as a Senator. While many of the other candidates being considered meet some of these qualifications, none meet all so clearly as Harris does. Harris is also young at only 55 years old, which creates a path in which she could be the first woman president in either 4 or 8 years depending on Joe Biden’s competency and health if he were to be elected.

While not as progressive as some of her colleagues such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren (who would be my ideal VP selections), Harris is right about many issues. She co-signed Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-For-All bill, supports the Green New Deal, supports criminal justice reform, and falls on the right side of many more pressing issues going into this election, especially when compared to her counterpart Mike Pence, who is in favor of conversion therapy and criminalizing a woman’s right to choose. Substantively, Harris is more in-line with the majority of the Democratic electorate’s policy prescriptions than the other progressive candidates who could have been selected as the nominee. She and Biden are very ideologically aligned, and Biden selecting her as a running mate doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch, as the betting markets are confident that Harris will soon be announced as Biden’s vice presidential selection.

As the Democratic National Convention nears, the anticipation for who Biden will select as his vice president is increasing rapidly. While my ideal pick for the position would be Elizabeth Warren, I think that Joe Biden should choose Kamala Harris given the current political landscape and circumstances. I’m sure we will find out very soon, and hopefully the selection is favored both now and come election time in November. Who do you think Biden will choose? Let me know. Thanks for reading.