2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of July

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in the United States of America, and I’m sure many will still be partying and celebrating their country with the traditional fireworks and cookouts. I’m fortunate enough to spend this holiday weekend with family, but instead of pretending to have an overinflated sense of patriotism at my country’s weakest point in my lifetime, I will be reflecting and looking ahead. I find that the importance of the injustices and tragedies happening right now outweigh the traditional celebration of this nation. The systemic inequities placed upon the minority population in this country, our failed response to COVID-19 which perpetually worsens as both our leaders and citizens fail to act responsibly, and the lack of basic respect both legally and rhetorically have led me to hope for a better future as I continue to educate myself presently. This Fourth Of July holiday also falls in the middle of an election year, in which we will be granted the opportunity to practice our right to vote for the next president of the United States and to choose our country’s path forward. With only four months until the election, and as campaign season begins to accelerate rather quickly, I believe it’s time to assess how I think the 2020 presidential election would unfold if it were held today. I will be making monthly predictions right up until just days before the actual election. Let’s get into it.

There are certain elements which remain constant and cyclical despite the many variables which decide presidential elections in this country. Some states are consistently partisan in their vote, and because of that, it can be assumed safely that these states will vote for their preferred party on election day. As pictured here, the states that I assume as givens are as follows: HI (D), WA (D), OR, (D), CA (D), IL (D), NY (D), ME (D), VT (D), MA (D), RI (D), CT (D), NJ (D), DE (D), MD (D), DC (D), AK (R), ID (R), UT (R), WY (R), ND (R), SD (R), NE (R), KS (R), OK (R), MO (R), AR (R), LA (R), MS (R), AL (R), SC (R), TN (R), KY (R), IN (R), and WV (R). Visualizing the states which, barring an election-night shock, will go to their presumed parties, makes one realize just how vital swing states are in a given election cycle.

Some states generally vote for one party opposed to the other, but can be slightly swayed due to pressing economic or social issues at the time of voting. As of July, I’m categorizing the likely states as follows: CO (D), NM (D), VA (D), and MT (R). None of these states’ would differ from the 2016 election, but since the difference in votes was more slim last go around, I’m marking these states as likely as opposed to safe for this year’s bout.

Now things get fun. These states are likely to lean in the direction of a particular candidate, but the recent polling makes me think that the eventual popular vote results will be closer than usual in the following states: MN (D), NH (D), IA (R), and TX (R). Three of these states vary back and forth from election-to-election, but it is a surprise to see Texas in the lean column. For decades, Texas was one of the deepest red states in the entire country. Recently, however, polling and senate races have proven that the developing population centers of Austin and Houston are slowly turning this state purple. If Donald Trump is forced to spend some of his campaign finances in the Lone Star State, he will be prevented from spending those assets in the most important states in the upcoming election.

These states are the ones I will be watching most closely on election night, as their outcomes will be both unpredictable and vital for whichever candidate ends up winning the presidency. These states will likely be toss-ups, and for that reason, I have only tilted them in either direction. Those are: NV (D), AZ (D), WI (D), MI (D), PA (D), NC (D), FL (D), OH (R), and GA (R). These predictions are somewhat based on recent polling, but also on the current state of affairs in the country. Voters in states such as Arizona and Florida which have been hit so hard recently by the coronavirus pandemic are likely looking for a different leadership approach than the one currently being offered by the Trump administration. Polls in the midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan have been highly favorable for Joe Biden, but after what happened in 2016’s election, I’m not comfortable marking either as anything more than tilted. Pennsylvania and Ohio tend to vote in unison with one another (except for most recently when they split in the 2004 election with OH going to Bush and PA going to Kerry), but I think Joe Biden coming from Pennsylvania will push him over the edge in the state. It’s entirely possible that I could be wrong about these states, but these are just my predictions based on if the election were held today, hence the upcoming monthly editions of these posts. As of now, I have Joe Biden winning the presidency with 334 electoral votes over Donald Trump’s 204.

There are many factors which will impact the election once it is upon us in November. The state of the economy, the severity of the coronavirus, the reaction to Joe Biden’s vice presidential selection, and the outcome of the presidential debates are just a few of the many variables which will decide who our next president will be. But as we enter the Fourth of July weekend, I find it important for us to reflect on where we are as a nation, and what kind of country we want to build and be proud of moving forward. Thanks for reading.