2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of October

In a normal election year cycle, one or two “October surprises” could be anticipated. Usually taking the form of unexpected news stories or revelations, these surprises can actually have an impact in states where the final popular vote count is close. This year’s election cycle, however, just like the rest of 2020, is the exact opposite of normal. One week into October and we have already found out about Donald Trump’s tax return bombshell, along with the President becoming a coronavirus super spreader who is infecting the entire White House with his irresponsibility. With less than a month to go until the last day of the election, national and statewide polling is looking promising for Joe Biden’s chances. This, of course, doesn’t mean we should become complacent or comfortable; things can change quickly. We should instead use these indicators as motivation to get out and vote if we haven’t already. In this post, I’ll be predicting the 2020 presidential election map, which is something I’ll only do once more before election day. Let’s get into it.

With time dwindling down before election day, prediction forecasts are starting to become more decisive in their projections. FiveThirtyEight, for example, calls Joe Biden a “favorite” to defeat Donald Trump, currently giving him an 84% chance of doing so. Largely, this is because the states where the popular vote margin will be high are solidifying more by the day, especially since the president caught the coronavirus. What’s interesting is that, according to my predictions, Joe Biden’s “safe” states like California, Illinois, and New York among others guarantee him 183 electoral votes, while Trump’s safe states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Utah among others only guarantee him 94 electoral votes. This disparity in given states puts Joe Biden at a big advantage, needing to win less battleground states in order to win electorally than Donald Trump.

Even some states that were Republican strongholds for decades such as Georgia and Texas are up for grabs in this year’s election. Whether this is because of changing demographics, our current political circumstances, or some combination of both, it’s undeniable that these states will likely be closer than they have been in a long time. As a Georgia voter who has already sent off his absentee ballot, I’d love to see my state go blue, but with past incidences of voter suppression and low turnout in key demographics, I’m currently predicting a Trump win both here and in Texas. Biden doesn’t need these states like Trump does, though, so making them a problem area for the Trump campaign, especially in regard to campaign finance, bodes well for Biden and company.

What was considered for years a “blue wall” or Democratically leaning voters decided against their norm and helped elect Donald Trump in 2016. There are many reasons why this happened, but I don’t see it happening again in 2020. Biden’s ties to the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania would likely seal the election for him if it were held today, and likely will in November if nothing changes. Those states, along with Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and others which were formally either red or swing states that are now turning purple or blue, pad Biden’s lead comfortably.

If the election were held today, I believe Joe Biden would comfortably become the next president of the United States, winning 319-219. I’m sure that Donald Trump’s fascistic tendencies of questioning the reliability of voting by mail will only worsen as the election nears, but we’ll cross (and burn) that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, it’s important to stay safe, informed, and active by voting, keeping up with the news, and listening to the scientific community. Thanks for reading, and enjoy tonight’s vice presidential debate.

Opinion: Why Bernie Sanders Should Be The Democratic Nominee For President

It’s common knowledge that the modern political era in the U.S. is extremely divisive. At the same time, however, there seems to be a shift in the way that people of all walks of life view their own political involvement, as increased awareness has led to more substantive discussions of differences in policy and worldview. In what can sometimes feel like a toxic environment, I find it important to take a bird’s eye view and analyze the issues affecting the most Americans, regardless of political party or defining characteristics, and to try to come to a common understanding across party lines. After spending months becoming more politically educated and involved, I believe I’ve begun to understand what has been happening to our country’s politics over the past few years, and why it’s my opinion that Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic nominee for President.

When Donald Trump became the Republican nominee for President in 2016, he did so by presenting himself as a political outsider. Those who felt disenfranchised and left behind by the political landscape at that time saw Trump as someone who, at the very least, seemed to relate to their struggles and presented himself as different from the norm. Whether or not any of that was true or came to fruition is up for debate, but the root cause being millions of people feeling left behind and susceptible to his political rhetoric is undeniable fact. For decades, conventional and calculated candidates gave stump speeches and played into an established political norm, which many disregarded. The reality now is that people are starting to realize they do have a political voice, they can create a movement, and they can take their country in a different direction that benefits them and their families. We are in an era of populism which is uprooting the decades of elitism which came before it.

Candidates who speak directly to their bases needs and desires are the ones who gain momentum and popularity. Since FDR’s presidency decades ago we’ve seen glimmers of populist rhetoric from various presidents, but no systemic change in favor of the everyday working American. However, some of the country’s most important and necessary steps forward, such as the civil rights movement and the feminist movement, were built upon progressive populist movements which were met by establishment resistance. Bernie Sanders has built a giant grassroots movement made up of small contributions from millions of working people on the promise that he will give them things they need, such as universal healthcare, student and medical debt forgiveness, a living minimum wage, and many other beneficial policy proposals. Sanders and Trump even share some policy viewpoints, particularly on trade. Bernie has won the first three Democratic primaries and caucuses, which could be the start of a primary landslide. Now is a time to encourage as much political participation as possible.

This country is truly at a crossroads in the 2020 election. While I have somewhat established political ideologies and viewpoints, I respect others’ perspectives as long as they are well-thought out and as long as they aren’t presented with animosity. It should be okay to believe in something different than someone else and to still get along with them. Appealing to the needs of as many Americans as possible is key in the upcoming election, not bending to the will of donors or political pressure. That is why I think Bernie Sanders should face off against Donald Trump in the general election this year, and the will of the people will decide which direction we take our country moving forward. Thanks for reading.

Here’s a link to register to vote: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote