Joe Biden Wins The 2020 Presidential Election

It’s done. Over the past four days, the United States has waited patiently as legally-cast ballots were counted in key swing states across the country. On Saturday morning, Pennsylvania was called by most mainstream media news networks, putting Joe Biden above the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency. Kamala Harris is now the first woman to be Vice President-Elect, which shows how far we’ve come as a nation.

This election has served as a decisive referendum against Donald Trump’s failed leadership. After dealing with vast racial tensions, an uncontrolled pandemic, and constant attacks against democracy, the American people chose Joe Biden with more votes than any other presidential candidate in the country’s history.

Honor, humility, empathy, and respect will return to the White House. Competence and dedication will return to the White House. We now have a President and Vice President-Elect who will govern for all Americans, not just for their supporters. Today is historic, and I’m so relieved to know definitively that we’ve made the right decision.

Final 2020 Presidential Election Prediction

Tomorrow marks a very important day for the United States. In less than twenty-four hours from now, voters will be lining up all across the country to cast their ballots for the 2020 presidential election. Although tomorrow is the last day to cast a ballot in this election cycle, early voter turnout has been record-breaking. This is in large part due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but polls show that voter enthusiasm may also be at an all-time high. So far, the race has been steady. Joe Biden has maintained a roughly 8% national lead over Donald Trump and has maintained slightly tighter leads in battleground states for the entire cycle. Barring something unprecedented happening, such as polls with an unpredictably high error or Trump making an effort to steal the election, Joe Biden is clearly favored to become the 46th president of the United States. I’ve predicted the outcome of the election multiple times on my blog, and in this post, I will do so for the last time until we find out the result, whenever that may be. Let’s get into it.

When determining who I believe will win each state and district, I looked at historical precedent, polling data, and local issues to make my predictions. Some states, whose polls are overwhelming partisan and consistent, can easily be categorized as “safe” for their respective candidate. Due to many previously safe Republican states shifting to the left, Joe Biden’s advantage becomes significant early on in tabulating electoral vote shares. There is no doubt that California, New York, and Illinois will go to Biden, or that Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia will go to Trump.

The “likely” states for each candidate are states I believe will be decided by a >10% but <15% popular vote margin. Very few would doubt Colorado going to Biden or Indiana going to Trump, although these states will be slightly too close to call them “safe” for their candidate. Perhaps if these states allocated their electoral vote share proportionally, candidates would make more of an attempt to reach out to voters here. But due to their partisan composition, it just remains that no surprises will come out of these states on election night.

I categorize “lean” states with a popular vote margin of >5% but <10%. This is where things get interesting and challenging to predict. Recent A+ rated rustbelt polls show Biden is probably going to recover the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. It should be noted that, against popular opinion, the last election’s national and state-level polls were fairly accurate, and all mostly within a margin of error that happened to favor Trump. This can be explained by Clinton’s failure to properly campaign in these states in the final stretch, James Comey’s influential letter just weeks before election day, and pollster bias which didn’t account for the education factor heavily enough. Since adjustments have been made in polling methodology since then (see 2018’s mid-terms) and there have been very few scandals in this cycle that have stuck against Biden, there’s no reason to assume polls will be as off as they were in 2016. As we begin to look at the “tilt” states of this election cycle, it becomes clear that Trump is the definitive underdog yet again, even more so than in 2016, and that he would need to sweep every battleground state in this year’s election to have a chance at winning. The problem for him: he’s down in almost all of them.

The two non-circumstantial factors that differentiate Biden’s campaign from Clinton’s are 1) stability, and 2) enthusiasm. Clinton’s leads in 2016 fluctuated greatly, which hasn’t been the case for Biden yet. On election day in the last cycle, Hillary Clinton was on both a national and statewide downswing that eventually favored Trump. Additionally, Clinton’s leads weren’t nearly as high as Biden’s have been so far, with Biden polling 50+% in multiple battlegrounds ahead of Trump according to A+ pollsters. We can’t count Trump out just yet, though, because this election is also one of the most unprecedented in the country’s history, as it is taking place in the middle of a pandemic. Turnout and mail-in ballots are variables that need to be considered, although it is difficult to predict how Trump’s likely premature declaration of victory will affect the race on election night, if at all. We’ve already talked about the red mirage theory on this blog, but even that may prove null if any of the swing sunbelt states show a sizable victory for Biden tomorrow night.

My tilt state predictions are even slightly conservative as I give Trump Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas, all of which very well could go to Biden. I’ve made the joke before that if Florida voters were to choose between world peace and a sexually transmitted disease, the vote would be 51%-49% and the choice wouldn’t be clear, so it’s difficult for me to expect Biden to win here, but polling has consistently shown a steady shot for the Biden campaign to end the election on November 3rd by winning the Sunshine State. Arizona, which has been shifting left consistently over the past few election cycles, is in the same boat, and will greatly increase Biden’s chances of winning if he secures its electoral votes. North Carolina polling has shown preferential for Biden, although I wouldn’t be shocked if it (or any of the other states mentioned here) went in Trump’s direction. However, I believe the keystone and most likely tipping point state of this election, Pennsylvania, will be closer than many expect.

I want to first address that Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the potential discarding of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots that aren’t processed by election night is authoritarian, fascistic, and anti-American. I’m glad that the Attorney General of Pennsylvania is confident in his ability to sustain these ballots if they are to be challenged by Trump’s lawyers. Trump has basically lived in Pennsylvania these last few days, though, and it bordering ultra-conservative West Virginia makes me think the popular vote margin in PA will be around 2 or 3%. By now, though, according to my predictions, Biden will have secured a popular vote victory of 335-203, becoming the President-Elect of the United States.

We all just want this election to be over. The constant headlines, divisiveness, and lies from the Trump administration have proven even more exhausting than I ever thought possible. In Biden, there will be a return to at least a level of decorum and respect for the White House that will allow us to address challenges such as racial disparity, COVID-19, and climate change, among others. If you haven’t voted yet, safely go to an in-person polling location tomorrow and do so. It’s your responsibility as a citizen to stay informed and engaged. Also, stay safe - I don’t want things to get ugly out there, but the way things have happened so far this year, nothing surprises me anymore at this point. Thanks for reading.

Album Review: Visions of Bodies Being Burned - clipping.

Horrorcore, a subgenre of rap music that intends to torment and entertain its listeners, is more popular than ever. Daveed Diggs and company who make up the rap group clipping. have capitalized on this development with their past two albums There Existed an Addiction to Blood and Visions of Bodies Being Burned. These projects quite literally use scary movie sound samples to craft their instrumentals, all while depicting unsettling narratives through Diggs’ genius lyricism. Just as their previous album was last year, clipping.’s Visions of Bodies Being Burned is one of my favorite albums of this year.

“Intro” is a standard tone-setting track from clipping. that checks all the boxes of what the group has to offer. A booming and mysterious beat, urgent cell phone audio rapping from Diggs, and an eardrum-shattering wall of sound that transitions into the second track seamlessly. Immediately, the listener knows that this album isn’t for everyone. Luckily, however, the first half of this album is far more accessible than the back half. “Say the Name” was one of the lead singles for this project and is one of my favorite clipping. songs from their entire discography. The background instrumental evolves and crescendos by its end in a way only described as masterfully. The “Candlesticks in the dark, visions of bodies being burned” sample in the chorus is catchy but very disturbing. “Wytchboard (Interlude)” plays on typical scary movie tropes with two young girls using a ouija board that eventually spells out “He is here", and transitions with spooky knocking into the next track “‘96 Neve Campbell,” which directly references my favorite scary movie Scream multiple times. This album is extremely cohesive.

“Something Underneath” allows Daveed Diggs to demonstrate his excellent fast rapping skills, as a tribal and ritualistic beat escalates being his urgent vocals. When the beat drops off halfway through this track, I feel like I’m listening to something I’m not supposed to be hearing. This is only interrupting by a clipping audio sound which both hurts to hear and can’t be turned down. The following “Make Them Dead” is probably the least accessible track on the album, as it uses a very loud and unsettling instrumental that, I imagine, many would describe as overwhelming. “She Bad” plays on that expression, describing a monstrous entity who tortures her victims instead of simply describing an attractive woman. Again, this is a dark story being told in the catchiest way possible.

“Invocation (Interlude)” is an appropriately-placed breather that maintains the unsettling aesthetic of this project. The next track “Pain Everday” is one of the most technically impressive on the album, as it utilizes a 7/8 beat that maintains the discomfort of the first listen. “Check the Lock” is a story of paranoia and is my favorite non-single on the album. The storytelling here is unparalleled in creativity and skill from Diggs’ stellar writing. “Looking Like Meat” is a very industrial offering that doesn’t go above and beyond in its production, but is still a good listen. I wish this song was rounded out like the others on the album, but at this point, I’m just being picky. “Drove (Interlude)” creepily uses farm animal sounds to transition into the final tracks of the album. “Eaten Alive” puts Diggs in the spotlight until it quite literally bangs pots and pans around to keep the listener on the edge of their seat.

“Body for the Pile” is another challenging listen, which features blasting background instrumentation. Luckily, Diggs comes in to tell more disturbing stories, and the clicking sound in the background builds intense intension. “Enlacing” is another great, and very accessible, track that the casual rap listener should enjoy. It’s eery, continues the project’s aesthetic, and slows things down as the album’s penultimate track. “Secret Piece” is a great, optimistic closer that uses chirping birds to provide relief for the listener. It’s as if the entire album leading up until this point was a nightmare, and now we have woken up to rediscover peace. I’m not sure if Diggs meant it this way, but I interpret this as a commentary on where we are now, how difficult and scary things can seem, but that a calm morning is always coming.

The production, lyricism, and thematics of clipping.’s albums are undeniably impressive and consistent. This project continued to build upon a very compelling aesthetic that suits the Fall so amazingly well. This track barely has any duds on it, and the high points are some of the best moments in music all year. I highly suggest you check out Visions of Bodies Being Burned.

Favorite tracks: “Intro”, “Say The Name”, “'‘96 Neve Campbell”, “Something Underneath”, “She Bad”, “Pain Everyday”, “Check the Lock”, “Eaten Alive”, “Enlacing”, “Secret Piece”

SCORE: Light 9/10

Album Review: Song Machine, Season One: Strange Timez - Gorillaz

Since the dawn of the millennium, the electropop band Gorillaz has captivated audiences around the world all while setting the newest trends in the industry. Co-founder and lead singer David Albarn can largely be credited for a lot of the group’s successes, as his creativity and impressive lyricism have helped differentiate the brand and established its instantly-recognizable quality. Some of the band’s earlier albums are some of my favorites, such as Demon Days and Plastic Beach, which will forever hold permanent places in my library. Gorillaz’ two most recent releases, however, Humanz and The Now Now, left me disappointed in the direction the group was heading. Luckily, with the release of Song Machine: Season One: Strange Timez, my faith in the band has been completely restored as they now only recapture the magical sound which I loved, but used unconventional features and stellar production to mature their sound in ways I never thought possible. This is an excellent album.

The album’s opening and title track “Strange Timez (feat. Robert Smith)” is a perfect example of how an atypical feature can be used to perfectly match a band’s aesthetic in fresh, creative ways. The Cure’s lead singer and very recognizable voice lay the foundation for this project while criticizing aspects of the world we live in and getting things off to a great start. “The Valley of The Pagans (feat. Beck)” also uses its feature extraordinarily well, which surprised me, as I have found Beck’s most recent releases and features somewhat lackluster, but not here. “The Last Chord (feat. Leee John)” is a less futuristic cut that still impressed me and reminded me very much of the band’s early work. “Pac-Man (feat. ScHoolboy Q)” is one of my favorite songs from the Gorillaz discography, which says a lot considering that the band gave us “Feel Good Inc.” and “Clint Eastwood.” This track effortlessly checks all of the boxes for the quintessential Gorillaz track, such as 2-D’s whispery vocals, a clean instrumental, and a grimy rap feature with more introspection than expected. So far, so good.

“Chalk Tablet Towers (feat. St Vincent)” is another solid track, but I find that it lacks some of the structural complexity that makes the rest of the songs on this album so compelling. It’s a bit of a one-note that doesn’t take away or add much from the rest of the project. “The Pink Phantom (feat. Elton John and 6LACK)” is a wonderfully produced track that delivers more of an emotional and substantive punch. This combination of features perplexed me at first, but if it were to work (which it absolutely does), it would be on a Gorillaz album. The contrast provided between Elton John’s whimsical and dramatic vocals and 6LACK’s autotuned rap delivery just works on this song. “Aries (feat. Peter Hook and Georgia)” understandably borrows heavily from New Order’s aesthetic, which I don’t have a problem with, since the feature is used so appropriately in the tracklisting. “Friday 13th (feat. Octavian)” is another calm, less futuristic cut that uses its feature well. Heading into its closing tracks, this album hardly misses a beat.

“Dead Butterflies (feat. Kano and Roxani Arias)” is one of 2-D’s best vocal performances on the album, using introspective lyricism. The production here is very hip-hop-inspired with competing snares and kickdrums which contrast nicely with a gentler vocal delivery. “Désolé (feat. Fatoumata Diawara)” is another upbeat highlight with smooth guitar backing that gets stuck in my head very easily. The track’s closing minute reaches a beautiful crescendo of strings and vocals that set up the final track beautifully. “Momentary Bliss (feat. slowthai & Slaves)” features a loud, punk vocal performance from Slowthai who always makes his presence known on tracks. This is the perfect closing track for such a concise, well put together album.

Besides just a couple of dull moments in the tracklisting, this newest Gorillaz album is sharp, to the point, and so catchy it’s ridiculous. I’m so glad that Damon Albarn has returned to the sound I’ve grown so fond of from the band over the years. This is one of the group’s best projects in a long, long time, and I can’t wait to see where they go from here. In the meantime, though, it’s Song Machine, Season One: Strange Timez, one of my favorite albums of the year, on repeat.

Favorite tracks: “Strange Timez (feat. Robert Smith)”, “The Valley of The Pagans (feat. Beck”), “The Lost Chord (feat. Leee John)”, “Pac-Man (feat. ScHoolboy Q)”, “The Pink Phantom (feat. Elton John and 6LACK)”, “Aries (feat. Peter Hook & Georgia)”, “Dead Butterflies (feat. Kano & Roxani Arias)”, “Désolé (feat. Fatoumata Diawara)”, “Momentary Bliss (feat. slowthai & Slaves)

SCORE: 9/10

Final Presidential Debate Analysis

On Thursday night, former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump met on the debate stage in Nashville, Tennessee for the final time. After what many called a disastrous first debate, changes were made to improve the event, including muting microphones for each candidate’s two-minute initial responses. These changes seem to have worked, as snapshot polls reflect that this debate was more informative than the first. But with less than two weeks until Election Day, each candidate’s strategy was clear: Biden was to hold steady, and Trump was to throw haymakers. It seems that despite Trump’s increased attempts at civility while still challenging Biden didn’t land and that Biden will continue as the clear favorite ahead of November 3rd.

One of the most improved debate elements on Thursday was the moderation. NBC News anchor Kristen Welker assertively but fairly gave both candidates chances to fully answer questions and defend themselves from accusations. This varied greatly from Chris Wallace’s moderation in the first debate, which according to many, couldn’t stop the constant interrupting which defined the candidates’ first encounter. Many of the most pressing issues the country is currently facing were addressed, including race relations, health care, the coronavirus, and climate change. With over 50,000,000 ballots already cast in the 2020 election, the effectiveness of potential October surprises is more questionable than usual, and I don’t think any bombshells were dropped this time around.

Despite seemingly making an effort to appear more humble and respectful than he did in the first debate, Donald Trump fell back on his tendency to make erroneous claims. At one point he stated that immigrants who seek asylum and return for a court date are “low IQ”, and at another point once again claimed he has done the most for the Black community since President Abraham Lincoln. When contrasted with Biden’s direct approach in speaking to the issues the American people are facing, the characters of the candidates on the stage becomes overwhelmingly clear.

Although we haven’t received an abundance of post-debate national or state polls, it appears that Joe Biden’s lead is holding steady with only 10 days left until the end of the election. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently gives Joe Biden an 87% chance of winning, and while this certainly isn’t a definitive prediction, it makes Donald Trump’s chances for mounting another unprecedented comeback extremely slim. But after the 2016 election, we know that anything is possible, especially under an electoral college system that disproportionately benefits the Republican Party.

At this point, the choice is clear. With a country facing so many issues and as partisan as ever, I expect record-high voter turnout for the 2020 cycle. It’s unfortunate that the second debate is the final debate instead of having a third as was originally scheduled, but I suppose that’s what happens when super-spreader events are held irresponsibly. Who do you think won the final presidential debate of 2020? Thanks for reading. Now go vote if you haven’t already.