2020 Presidential Election Map Prediction As Of July

Tomorrow is Independence Day here in the United States of America, and I’m sure many will still be partying and celebrating their country with the traditional fireworks and cookouts. I’m fortunate enough to spend this holiday weekend with family, but instead of pretending to have an overinflated sense of patriotism at my country’s weakest point in my lifetime, I will be reflecting and looking ahead. I find that the importance of the injustices and tragedies happening right now outweigh the traditional celebration of this nation. The systemic inequities placed upon the minority population in this country, our failed response to COVID-19 which perpetually worsens as both our leaders and citizens fail to act responsibly, and the lack of basic respect both legally and rhetorically have led me to hope for a better future as I continue to educate myself presently. This Fourth Of July holiday also falls in the middle of an election year, in which we will be granted the opportunity to practice our right to vote for the next president of the United States and to choose our country’s path forward. With only four months until the election, and as campaign season begins to accelerate rather quickly, I believe it’s time to assess how I think the 2020 presidential election would unfold if it were held today. I will be making monthly predictions right up until just days before the actual election. Let’s get into it.

There are certain elements which remain constant and cyclical despite the many variables which decide presidential elections in this country. Some states are consistently partisan in their vote, and because of that, it can be assumed safely that these states will vote for their preferred party on election day. As pictured here, the states that I assume as givens are as follows: HI (D), WA (D), OR, (D), CA (D), IL (D), NY (D), ME (D), VT (D), MA (D), RI (D), CT (D), NJ (D), DE (D), MD (D), DC (D), AK (R), ID (R), UT (R), WY (R), ND (R), SD (R), NE (R), KS (R), OK (R), MO (R), AR (R), LA (R), MS (R), AL (R), SC (R), TN (R), KY (R), IN (R), and WV (R). Visualizing the states which, barring an election-night shock, will go to their presumed parties, makes one realize just how vital swing states are in a given election cycle.

Some states generally vote for one party opposed to the other, but can be slightly swayed due to pressing economic or social issues at the time of voting. As of July, I’m categorizing the likely states as follows: CO (D), NM (D), VA (D), and MT (R). None of these states’ would differ from the 2016 election, but since the difference in votes was more slim last go around, I’m marking these states as likely as opposed to safe for this year’s bout.

Now things get fun. These states are likely to lean in the direction of a particular candidate, but the recent polling makes me think that the eventual popular vote results will be closer than usual in the following states: MN (D), NH (D), IA (R), and TX (R). Three of these states vary back and forth from election-to-election, but it is a surprise to see Texas in the lean column. For decades, Texas was one of the deepest red states in the entire country. Recently, however, polling and senate races have proven that the developing population centers of Austin and Houston are slowly turning this state purple. If Donald Trump is forced to spend some of his campaign finances in the Lone Star State, he will be prevented from spending those assets in the most important states in the upcoming election.

These states are the ones I will be watching most closely on election night, as their outcomes will be both unpredictable and vital for whichever candidate ends up winning the presidency. These states will likely be toss-ups, and for that reason, I have only tilted them in either direction. Those are: NV (D), AZ (D), WI (D), MI (D), PA (D), NC (D), FL (D), OH (R), and GA (R). These predictions are somewhat based on recent polling, but also on the current state of affairs in the country. Voters in states such as Arizona and Florida which have been hit so hard recently by the coronavirus pandemic are likely looking for a different leadership approach than the one currently being offered by the Trump administration. Polls in the midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan have been highly favorable for Joe Biden, but after what happened in 2016’s election, I’m not comfortable marking either as anything more than tilted. Pennsylvania and Ohio tend to vote in unison with one another (except for most recently when they split in the 2004 election with OH going to Bush and PA going to Kerry), but I think Joe Biden coming from Pennsylvania will push him over the edge in the state. It’s entirely possible that I could be wrong about these states, but these are just my predictions based on if the election were held today, hence the upcoming monthly editions of these posts. As of now, I have Joe Biden winning the presidency with 334 electoral votes over Donald Trump’s 204.

There are many factors which will impact the election once it is upon us in November. The state of the economy, the severity of the coronavirus, the reaction to Joe Biden’s vice presidential selection, and the outcome of the presidential debates are just a few of the many variables which will decide who our next president will be. But as we enter the Fourth of July weekend, I find it important for us to reflect on where we are as a nation, and what kind of country we want to build and be proud of moving forward. Thanks for reading.

Albums Which Have Earned A Perfect Score (10/10) From Me

Music has become one of the central topics I discuss on this blog. Whether I’m reviewing a new album, making a ranking list of projects which have come out in a given year, or discussing how my taste in music has changed over time, I’ve found that I have a lot to say when discussing music. In one of this blog’s first posts, I outlined my rubric and criteria for scoring albums and giving scores out of ten. After writing over twenty album reviews on this blog, none of the new releases in recent months have received a perfect score of 10/10. I give this score out sparingly and infrequently, reserving it for only the most influential, masterful, and flawless records which also have personal significance to me. While Charli, IGOR, RTJ4, and The Highwomen have all come close on this blog with scores of 9/10, none have earned the highly coveted perfect score. In this post, I’m going to be discussing a few albums which I consider prime examples of albums worthy of such critical acclaim.

• My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy - Kanye West

This is an album which I grew up listening to on repeat throughout my teenage years. It’s one of the main reasons Kanye West is the artist I’ve listened to most all-time on Spotify. This album defines my favorite Kanye West era: Braggadocious, socially conscious, artistic, and self-reflective. Each beat is luxurious and grandiose, establishing the perfect backdrop for Mr. West and all of the accompanying features to advance the album’s enticing narrative. I think every song belongs exactly where it finds itself on the track-listing, and there is nothing I would change about this project. Tracks like “POWER”, “All Of The Lights”, and “Runaway” were classics the moment they released. The multimodality created by Kanye West’s short film Runaway adds even more to this project’s lore, and because of that, it earns a perfect score.

• The Money Store - Death Grips

This isn’t an album I recommend to everyone I meet. Death Grips’ The Money Store is one of the most influential experimental hip-hop albums of all-time, but it’s not for everyone. Its production was far beyond its years upon its release in 2012, and since then, it has proven to be a guideline for industrial and electronic hip-hop releases for a wide range of artists. Tracks like “Get Got”, “I’ve Seen Footage”, and “Hacker” are just as good now as when I was introduced to them years ago, and the chaotic energy this album presents is unparalleled. There’s nothing I could ever change about this album.

• Rumours - Fleetwood Mac

This may be the least controversial selection on this list. It’s fairly widely established that Rumours is one of the greatest albums of all-time by any metric. The circumstances in which it was written and recorded were both peculiar and necessary for the creative genius that went into crafting an album consisting of classic after classic. From “Dreams” and “Don’t Stop” to “Go Your Own Way” and “The Chain”, Fleetwood Mac was able to compile some of the most famous and critically acclaimed songs of all-time all on the same project. This album will never get old and will always have a special place in my heart and musical library.

• To Pimp A Butterfly - Kendrick Lamar

Kendrick Lamar’s 2015 magnum opus To Pimp A Butterfly is one of the most sonically and thematically masterful hip-hop albums of all-time. Its stellar production, thematic messaging, and creativity make it stand out not only as a great project, but as a very unique record as well. The jazz influences found throughout this album create the perfect backdrop and aesthetic for Kendrick’s intricate delivery of insightful political and socioeconomic commentary. I return to “u”, “Alright”, and “How Much A Dollar Cost” regularly. The usage of the continuing poem throughout this album which culminates in one of the best musical twists ever as Kendrick reveals he has been conversing with Tupac the entire time is still chill-inducing. I will forever love this project, and I’m so glad that Kendrick Lamar was the first concert I attended.

• Pure Comedy - Father John Misty

This is my favorite album of all-time. Josh Tillman’s take on an indie folk epic which discusses every element of American society hits on all cylinders for me. Each track is unique and offers relevant and potent critiques on the world around us. Some call this record too heavy or depressing to enjoy listening to, especially repeatedly, but I argue otherwise. The project’s final track, “In Twenty Years Or So”, is able to acknowledge that the world can be difficult, unfair, and make little sense, but that it’s worth living nonetheless with the closing lines “There’s nothing to fear”. I love every song here, but “Pure Comedy”, “Total Entertainment Forever”, “Ballad Of The Dying Man”, “Smoochie”, “So I’m Growing Old On Magic Mountain”, and “In Twenty Years Or So” are some of my favorites. Being able to see Father John Misty perform with my girlfriend after listening to him almost exclusively when meeting and getting to know her was an otherworldly, almost spiritual experience. I even got to touch his bizarrely cold hand from the front row, how cool is that? Pure Comedy epitomizes everything I look for in an album. It has complex lyricism, fantastic and creative production, heartfelt delivery, social commentary, and timeliness. This is the easiest 10/10 I could ever give.

I’m certainly not opposed to giving a perfect score to an album on a new review if any project is able to check all of the boxes and meet the standards set by the projects discussed here. Music is hugely important in my life, and I’m comforted by the fact that returning to these albums will always be an option for me. What are some of your favorite albums of all-time which earn a perfect score from you? Let me know. Thanks for reading.

The Dangers Of Normalization

It goes without saying that 2020 has been one of the darkest years in recent memory for a myriad of reasons. A nightmarish mix of incompetent presidential leadership, a global pandemic, and continued police brutality due to foundational systemic racism have defined the first six months of the new decade. While I don’t think it’s a bad thing to look for the best in any given situation, I’ve noticed a troubling trend of large issues being ignored until they reach a boiling point, or more recently, just accepting the absurdity of everything around us as a “new normal” when, in reality, there is nothing normal about what is happening. The onus is on us to make a change for the better.

Whichever methods Donald Trump used to swindle millions of Americans to support him in 2016 don’t seem to be working so far in 2020’s campaign. Recent polls collectively reflect that soon-to-be Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is beating the incumbent president on both a national level and in the key swing states which will likely end up deciding the results of November 3rd’s election. We must remain vigilant and active, though, and learn from the mistakes of the 2016 election, in which many overestimated the polling data and decided not to vote. The president’s recent attacks on dreamers and DACA, the LGBTQ+ community, and unfathomable ambiguity when discussing COVID-19 and police brutality are sickening and un-American. This can’t become normal.

While our leadership continues to fail us, the coronavirus pandemic is continuing to spread uncontrollably in many states such as Florida, Arizona, and Texas. These recent spikes have led said states to regress their reopening plans, and there doesn’t seem to be an end in-sight as there are still individuals disregarding guidelines such as social distancing and mask-wearing. At the time of writing this, 127,986 Americans have died from the virus. This is because of an unspeakable mishandling of the pandemic from the president and his administration, who infamously claimed in February that cases would shortly be down to 0. Just because the virus is continuing to spread doesn’t mean it needs to keep spreading. If we follow the guidelines and listen to healthcare officials, we can slow the spread and manage the virus. What is happening now is simply unacceptable. This can’t become normal.

Speaking of unacceptable is the fact that Breonna Taylor’s killers still haven’t been charged for murder. It’s unacceptable that black Americans are incarcerated at more than five times the rate of white Americans. It’s unacceptable that police officers receive so much funding, yet so frequently abuse their power and fail to uphold the oath of protecting and serving their citizens. It’s also unacceptable that, for many, the Black Lives Matter movement was simply a trend which served as a means to virtue signal to their followers that they’re “woke”, but then return to not giving the cause any more thought. Whether one decides to post about these causes on their social media or not doesn’t necessarily reflect the advocacy and activism they partake in, but failing to advance a movement which is striving for equality and justice for black Americans at all is unacceptable. We can’t just pretend that everything’s okay. It isn’t. This cannot become normal.

Despite the circumstances we are in, we don’t have to accept what is happening as normal. We are able to love one another, educate ourselves, and advocate for rationality all while rejecting the status quo which has led us to this troubling moment in American history. The only way forward is upward toward a future of science, compassion, justice, rationality, and equality for all. Criticizing aspects of this country doesn’t mean you hate it, it means you love it and you want to make it better, because what is happening now isn’t working, and it can’t become normal. Thanks for reading.

Album Review: Punisher - Phoebe Bridgers

On her sophomore album Punisher, Phoebe Bridgers candidly establishes her artistic voice by depicting an array of sentiments from absolutely chilling to heart-warming. After enjoying aspects of her debut album Stranger In The Alps but seeing plenty of room for improvement, I was delighted in Bridgers’ maturation as a songwriter in a mere three years. The relatability with which Bridgers delivers reflections on solitude, sadness, and uncertainty is magnetic and compelling. While there is still slight room for improvement, I’m ecstatic and shocked that Bridgers is already delivering such an extraordinary album so early-on in her musical career.

“DVD Menu” opens the album instrumentally and ambiently, which is something I’m usually not fond of to open projects, but in this case, it sets the tone and mood for the tracks to come hauntingly. Lead single “Garden Song” follows, discussing the necessity to resist negative thoughts in order to manifest what one really wants in life. Even for a relatively upbeat track, this song’s lyrical content is conflicted and emotionally complex, just as its singer is. “Kyoto” initially sounds like an upbeat indie rock track, but is really discussing always wanting to be somewhere else, a concept not exclusive to Bridgers, but interesting nonetheless. I hear the influence of Weezer in the strained delivery here, which is a compliment in my eyes.

The album’s title track Punisher changes pace as Bridgers offers an after-dark contemplation of herself, those who inspire her, and the city she lives in. “Halloween” features some of my favorite lyrics on the album, such as “I hate living by the hospital / The sirens go all night / I used to joke that if they woke you up / Somebody better be dying”. In reality, though, this song is just as heavy and downright depressed as any before it on this project. “Chinese Satellite” speaks to me more than any other track on this album, as it discusses one’s complex relationship with belief and religion in a way I’ve never heard before. Specifically, the lines “Because I think when you’re gone it’s forever / But you know I’d stand on the corner / Embarrassed with a picket sign / If it meant I would see you when I die”, which is just a jarringly honest sentiment. “Moon Song” beautifully conveys a struggling relationship and the impossibility of providing another person’s happiness for them, although it is instrumentally one of the more understated and forgettable songs on the album.

“Savior Complex” is essentially a lyrical sequel to “Moon Song”, as it discusses the desire to want to fix someone else, or at least relate their pain to your own, which sounds strange, but is actually fairly common. “ICU” is one of my favorite songs on the project, as it beautifully explains the resistance to finding the right person, almost denying that happiness is possible after accepting, at the very least, a mundane life, if not actual depression. “Graceland Too” is a more traditional folk track, at least sonically, but the lyrical content comes off as repetitive to me, and besides the outro segment, this song could’ve been scrapped. “I Know The End” is one of the strongest closers in recent memory, as it jam-packs a variety of ideas and styles into a single track seamlessly. This apocalyptic fantasy indicates to me that Bridgers still has so much to say and so many ways left to say it. Bridgers’ closing screams are bone-chilling and terrifying, certainly a juxtaposition to the overt sentimentality found throughout this project.

Sometimes albums just catch me by surprise. While this album isn’t necessarily timely in the traditional sense as RTJ4 was in directly discussing prominent social issues, Punisher feels like it has been in the works for a very long time, as these topics which many relate to are discussed so seamlessly. I was particularly impressed by how clearly and directly Bridgers was able to express complex ideas and themes on this album. I’m thoroughly impressed by this must-listen album, and I highly suggest you check it out as soon as possible. Thanks for reading.

Favorite tracks: “Garden Song”, “Kyoto”, “Punisher”, “Halloween”, “Chinese Satellite”, “Savior Complex”, “ICU”, “I Know The End”

SCORE: 8/10

My Favorite Albums Of 2020 So Far

As we near the halfway point of what has been the longest year in recent memory, I’ve started reflecting on some of the great music which has been released so far in 2020. The albums featured here have all been added to my permanent library, and have been in heavy rotation, serving as great escapes from the chaos which has surrounded us recently. I’m sure more fantastic projects will be released by the end of the year, and that the end of year list will look very different, but regardless, these are my favorite albums of 2020 so far.

5. Reunions - Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit

My review of this album discussed both the highest and lowest points of a good Americana album in-depth. Since the project’s release last month, this project has aged fairly well, but the criticisms I levied against Isbell’s newest offering still stand. Some of the songs featured here are among Isbell’s best, but the album’s tone and pacing aren’t as cohesive as some of his previous projects. That being said, this is still a good and enjoyable listen, and the song “Overseas” still amazes me.

4. how i’m feeling now - Charli XCX

The fact that this album was made entirely in quarantine is still astounding. While not as polished or vibrant as her 2019 magnum opus Charli, Charli XCX was still able to put together a thoroughly impressive collection of tracks. The production is incredible on this project, and many of the songs here are songs I listen to frequently. Great music which aptly communicates the feelings associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

3. Song For Our Daughter - Laura Marling

This is the only project on my mid-year list which didn’t get its own in-depth review on my blog. March and April were slightly tumultuous times, and unfortunately, this project got lost in the shuffle. Since then, though, I’ve been obsessed with this album. Laura Marling channels the sounds and emotions of Joni Mitchell’s album Blue, all while offering new perspectives and techniques which differentiate this beautiful album from others in an otherwise oversaturated singer-songwriter genre. This album isn’t perfect, but it is great, and for that reason it earns a score of 8/10 and a place on this list.

2. Fetch The Bolt Cutters - Fiona Apple

This rugged, raw, and relentless album still ruminates in my mind from the first listen I gave it. The subsequent listens have allowed me to further appreciate the nuances and hidden gems this project has to offer, which layer upon one another beautifully. Released not too long into the coronavirus pandemic, this album came at the perfect time, allowing us all to relate to the sentiment “I’ve been in here too long”. I still find that this album should’ve ended at its jaw-dropping climax, and that the final two tracks seem unnecessary, but overall, Fiona Apple succeeded yet again with this great album.

1. RTJ4 - Run The Jewels

Great music not only achieves the fundamental qualities which accompany a pleasant listening experience, but it also meets a moment’s needs, which is exactly what RTJ4 did upon its release. The national emergency we’re currently facing and have been facing for centuries has finally received a spotlight, but change is just beginning in this country. The murder of innocent black Americans at the hands of police is the most vile and repugnant example of the discrimination black Americans face on a systemic and regular basis. This project reminds us that black lives always have and always will matter. El-P and Killer Mike’s production, lyricism, and truth-telling on this album are unparalleled, and while there are a couple slow moments which prevent me from calling this project perfect, it’s damn close, and it is my favorite album of 2020 so far because of that.

Which albums are your favorites of 2020 so far? Which projects are you anticipating before the year ends? Make sure to let me know, and enjoy listening to these great projects through these difficult times. Thanks for reading.